Dear MAGA: 20190605 Open Topic

The REAL Question, completely ignored by the Commies is are we looking at a mini-ice age or return to full blown glaciation?
Global warming is NOT on the table AT ALL! The solar insolation is JUST NOT AVAILABLE.
Holocene peak solar insolation for the Holocene was 523 Wm-2
It is now (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
That is a decreased = 47 Wm-2
If we compare the current insolation (476 Wm-2) to the Depths of the last ice age – around 464 Wm−2 the earth is presently ONLY 12 Wm-2 above that number!!!
This is using NOAA’s numbers (Berger) @ 60N not 65N
(www1DOT)ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
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A paper from the fall of 2012 Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? gives the calculated solar insolation values @ 65N on June 22 for several glacial inceptions:
Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2
(Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)
You can see why there is an argument. Solar insolation isn’t a cut and dried measure for glacial inception.
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Here is another paper that shows that increase in solor insolation during the early Holocene caused glaciers to melt and the temperature to be 1-3°C above the 20th century average.
Temperature and precipitation history of the Arctic

…. Solar energy reached a summer maximum (9% higher than at present) ~11 ka ago and has been decreasing since then, primarily in response to the precession of the equinoxes. The extra energy elevated early Holocene summer temperatures throughout the Arctic 1-3°C above 20th century averages, enough to completely melt many small glaciers throughout the Arctic, although the Greenland Ice Sheet was only slightly smaller than at present. Early Holocene summer sea ice limits were substantially smaller than their 20th century average, and the flow of Atlantic water into the Arctic Ocean was substantially greater. As summer solar energy decreased in the second half of the Holocene, glaciers re-established or advanced, sea ice expanded…

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—-You really didn’t expect the Elite to clue in the Great Unwashed now did you? Instead you see them, including the US Universities, buying up farmland in non-glaciated areas like Africa, South America and Australia all the while yammering about a Population Bomb and de-industrializing the USA….
The switch from full bore industrial manufacturing to killing off Western Civilization came in the early 1970s right around the time Shackleton provided CONCRETE evidence that the Milancovitch cycles were correct. Coincidence?? I think not—-
The Berger and Loutre’s 2002 MODELING is what NASA/NOAA uses to say the current Ice Age has ended and the earth will not go back into glaciation. Not reality based evidence just Computer Modeling.
Lisiecki and Raymo, (2005) essentially quashed the Berger and Loutre’s 2002 modeling and no one has come forward with anything supporting an extended Holocene since then.
A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records
Lisiecki & Raymo

RESULTS
Recent research has focused on MIS 11 as a possible analog for the present interglacial [e.g., Loutre and Berger, 2003; EPICA Community Members, 2004] because both occur during times of low eccentricity. The LR04 age model establishes that MIS 11 spans two precession cycles, with d18O values below 3.6% for 20 kyr, from 398 – 418 ka. In comparison, stages 9 and 5 remained below 3.6% for 13 and 12 kyr, respectively, and the Holocene interglacial has lasted 11 kyr so far. In the LR04 age model, the average LSR of 29 sites is the same from 398– 418 ka as from 250–650 ka; consequently, stage 11 is unlikely to be artificially stretched. However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence.

Or there is this paper a couple years later.
“Because the intensities of the 397kaBP and present insolation minima are very similar, we conclude that under natural boundary conditions the present insolation minimum holds the potential to terminate the Holocene interglacial.” *http://folk.uib.no/abo007/share/papers/eemian_and_lgi/mueller_pross07.qsr.pdf
What we do know is that the past 6 interglacials, dating back to the Mid Pleistocene Transition, have lasted roughly half of a precessional cycle, or 11,500 years. The present age of the Holocene is 11,720 years or about two hundred years past the due date. Therefore the Little Ice Age should have been glacial inception.
So what happened?
The Grand Solar Maximum, highest in 3,000 years that has just ended. See: A History of Solar Activity over Millennia Usoskin et al. This is a very good paper using multiple methods to validate their results.
Ice cores from the Freemont Glacier show it went from Little Ice Age cold to Modern Warming warm in the ten years between 1845 and 1855. Naturally.

ABSTRACT
An ice core removed from the Upper Fremont Glacier in Wyoming provides evidence for abrupt climate change during the mid-1800s….
At this depth, the age-depth profile predicts an age of 1845 A.D. Results indicate the termination of the LIA was abrupt with a major climatic shift to warmer temperatures around 1845 A.D. and continuing to present day. Prediction limits (error bars) calculated for the profile ages are ±10 years (90% confidence level). Thus a conservative estimate for the time taken to complete the LIA climatic shift to present-day climate is about 10 years, suggesting the LIA termination in alpine regions of central North America may have occurred on a relatively short (decadal) timescale.
*http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/1999JD901095/full

If you look at the Sunspot graphs and apply Dr Evan’s ~11 year Notch-Delay Solar Theory the match is spot on.
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Next question is how long is the Transition?
“This record also reveals that the transitions at the beginning and end of the interglacial spanned only ~100 and 150 years, respectively.” *http://www.pnas.org/content/104/2/450.full
Actually Dr. Alley showed the flip from Wisconsin Ice Age to Holocene happened in THREE YEARS!

In his book, The Two-Mile Time Machine: Ice Cores, Abrupt Climate Change, and Our Future Richard Alley, one of the world’s leading climate researchers, tells the fascinating history of global climate changes as revealed by reading the annual rings of ice from cores drilled in Greenland. In the 1990s he and his colleagues made headlines with the discovery that the last ice age came to an abrupt end over a period of only three years….
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The switch from the last interglacial to glaciation was VERY CHAOTIC.
Rapid sea-level changes at the close of the last interglacial (substage 5e) recorded in Bahamian island geology

Abstract
Rapid and abrupt relative sea-level changes within the last interglacial (substage 5e) are recorded in the island geology of the tectonically stable Bahamas. From 132 to 118 ka, reef growth reached a maximum elevation near +2 m, as indicated by fossil reef elevation across the platform, whereas bioeroded notches are incised in coastal cliffs as high as +6 m. The end of the interval is characterized by voluminous eolianites exhibiting palm tree and frond impressions. It is inferred that sea level for most of the interval remained near +2 m, restraining reef growth, and that the notch at +6 m represents a rapid and brief excursion just before the close of the substage. The subsequent fall must have been rapid in order to leave the notch profile intact and mobilize windward lagoon ooids into dunes before cementation could anchor them. In order to explain the rapid rise to +6 m, glacial surging is invoked. The subsequent fall, also rapid, may be a consequence of the surge flooding high latitudes and providing enough moisture to initiate reglaciation and drawdown.
*http://geology.gsapubs.org/content/24/9/775.abstract

Or as the Authors, Neuman and Hearty, of the above paper said:
“The lesson from the last interglacial “greenhouse” in the Bahamas is that the closing of that interval brought sea-level changes that were rapid and extreme. This has prompted the remark that between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!