20200224: Dear KMAG Open Thread

Every ice-age began when CO2 was at or near peak levels, in other words, high CO2 levels were not enough to prevent ice ages.
No one wants to mention a possible return to a full blown ice age but the possibility IS THERE and the Elite are very well aware of it. This maybe a major driving force behind what we are seeing. The actual the knowledge that the weather will get cooler going into Little Ice Age like conditions at the best, would explains a lot of the manipulations in the last decades as wealth has moved out of the USA and Europe towards the equator.
It explains the panic about ‘over population’ and the drive towards curbing human population by what ever means. This includes funding Planned Parenthood. The USDA funding the development of Spermicidal corn. The rumored sterilization by vaccine and other means like bio-engineered bacteria and viruses…
The Holocene interglacial is now 11,700 years old. That’s two centuries or so beyond half the present precession cycle (or 23,000/2=11,500). So the little Ice Age was about the right time for glacial inception. However we had the Modern GRAND Solar Minimum now ending.
Will the earth descend into glaciation or be a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial? That is still being argued. However one thing is for sure the earth is certainly not going to warm for another 65 kyr and it is going to be very nasty violent cold weather. As one geologists Neuman and Hearty put it. ” between the greenhouse and the icehouse lies a climatic “madhouse”!”
Both NASA and WIki use Berger’s MODELS to say the Holocene will continue and the Ice Age the earth is presently in has ended. However more recent research using real data shoots Berger’s models dead.
A Pliocene-Pleistocene stack of 57 globally distributed benthic D18O records by Lisiecki & Raymo

…..However, the 21 June insolation minimum at 65°N during MIS 11 is only 489 W/m2, much less pronounced than the present minimum of 474 W/m2. In addition, current insolation values are not predicted to return to the high values of late MIS 11 for another 65 kyr. We propose that this effectively precludes a ‘‘double precession cycle’’ interglacial [e.g., Raymo, 1997] in the Holocene without human influence….

A newer paper from the fall of 2012 Can we predict the duration of an interglacial? agrees and gives the calculated solar insolation values @ 65N on June 22 for several glacial inceptions:
Current value – insolation = 479W m−2 (from that paper)
MIS 7e – insolation = 463 W m−2,
MIS 11c – insolation = 466 W m−2,
MIS 13a – insolation = 500 W m−2,
MIS 15a – insolation = 480 W m−2,
MIS 17 – insolation = 477 W m−2
(Changes near the north polar area, about 65 degrees North, are considered important due to the great amount of land. Land masses respond to temperature change more quickly than oceans.)
You can see why there is an argument. Solar insolation isn’t a cut and dried measure for glacial inception.
Looking at it the other way round using NOAA’s numbers (Berger) @ 60N not 65N
(www1DOT)ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/paleo/climate_forcing/orbital_variations/berger_insolation/insol91.jun
Holocene peak insolation: 523 Wm-2
……………………………………………..decreased = 47 Wm-2
NOW (modern Warm Period) 476 Wm-2
…………………………………………….. decreased = 12 Wm-2
Depth of the last ice age – around 464 Wm−2
11,000 years ago…………… 523.16 Wm-2 peak insolation
Wisconsin Ice age- Holocene transition
12,000 years ago…………… 522.50 Wm-2
It takes about 5 Watts per square metre to raise the worlds temperature from 15°C to 16°C.
Once the Earth flips into the Ice Box mode there is no going back.