As I’ve been reading many of the comments here regarding the Wuhan Coronavirus, it has become obvious that many do not understand exponential growth, or, perhaps, haven’t really realized its implications.
I hope to rectify that.
This is a bit of a ramble. I hope it’s understandable.
Exponential Growth, Introduced.
I’m going to start by going over some mathematics. (Some of you will already know this stuff; I beg your indulgence if it seems condescending, for it’s not aimed at you.)
Perhaps the best place to start is to consider compound interest. Say you deposit a hundred dollars at 5% (OK, in today’s world that’s sheer fantasy, but bear with me).
After a year, you have $105. That’s $100 x 1.05.
After two years, you have $110, right? Wrong!. It’s compounded interest, the interest is paid on the whole starting amount, even the part that was originally an interest payment to you. So, in that second year you’ve made 5 percent off of 105, not 100, dollars, and that’s $105 x 1.05, which is to say $110.25.
So now, $110.25 is your new baseline, going into the third year. And you will make 0.05 x $110.25 or $5.5125, and your bank will probably round it down and hand you $5.51, and your balance will now be $115.76.
If you naively thought that after three years, you’d only have $115, well, instead you have almost $116, and you’ve underestimated your return by 5 percent.
How long will it take to double your money? Not twenty years, but a bit over fourteen years! The rule of thumb is to divide your interest rate into 72. 72/5 gives you a bit over 14.
(It’s a little more complicated if your interest is compounded quarterly, instead of yearly, which is common, or even daily, which is also common, but the principle remains the same.)
To calculate what you’ll have after n years, you can basically do the following. Take your starting amount, $100, and multiply it by 1.05 n times, like this:
$100 x 1.05 x 1.05 x 1.05 x 1.05 x 1.05
(to give you the answer for five years).
But you don’t want to write all that out for all possible cases, so mathematicians have created a shorthand for this. They will write:
$100 x 1.05n.
The n superscript means multiply whatever it’s superscripted on by itself that many times. It’s called an exponent. And, as another way of talking about the same thing, you can say you’re “raising 1.05 to the nth power.”
And a function where the variable is in the exponent is called an exponential function. So you could write something like:
b = $100 x 1.05n
and you’ve expressed your bank balance, b, as a function of the number of (whole) years your starting money has been in that account. And of course you could replace the $100 with another variable, p, for principal, and get a more general function, still:
b = p x 1.05n.
Finally, you can even replace the 1.05 with something like “1 plus the interest rate” and get:
b = p x (1+i)n.
It’s very important to put those parentheses in; they tell you you’re raising (one plus the interest rate), not just the interest rate, to the nth power.
If you step away from interest rates, per se, and re-label things, the general form of an exponential function becomes:
y = bx
Now things are really general. n, usually an integer, is replaced by x, which need not be an integer! x could be 2.4, for instance.
Now how the heck do you multiply a number by itself 2.4 times? Well, to make a long story short, you can multiply it by itself twenty four times (raise it to the 24th power) then take the tenth root of that, and 24/10 = 2.4. To make the long story even shorter, well…you just can, and your calculator knows how to do it.
The 1+i is replaced by b for “base,” which is the appropriate name for the number that you’re “raising to a power” or “exponentiating.”
And y, of course is the traditional label for the result of the equation, the dependent variable because its value depends on x, the independent variable, in the manner that’s specified by the the function.
How about setting b equal to 2. Now we have:
y = 2x
So if:
x is 1, y is 2.
x is 2, y is 2×2 = 4.
x is 3, y is 2x2x2 = 8.
x is 4, y is 2x2x2x2 = 16.
And so on. Each increase in x by one doubles the resulting y. It’s as if you had 100% interest, compounded!
By the way, what if x is zero? How do you multiply a number by itself zero times? Well for consistency any number multiplied by itself zero times is 1. So 20 = 1. And this makes sense. If every step is twice as much as the one before it, it’s half as much as the one after it. Since x = 1 gives y = 2, it stands to reason that x = 0 should give half as much, or…1. You can even carry this into negative numbers. If x is -1, then y should be one half what it is at 0, so y = 1/2. So 2-1 = 1/2.
[As an aside: Mathematicians love to use 2.718281828… as the base, and they’ve even defined that number to be e. It’s as important in mathematics as pi (π) is. This number is known as the “base of the natural logarithms.” I won’t torture you with it beyond this; we’re sticking to 2 from here on out, we’re going to be talking about doubling and halving.]
So let’s say you have a microbe in a petri dish.
After a day, the microbe splits in half, and you now have two microbes.
Each of those microbes splits again, after another day (two days total) and you now have four microbes.
But that’s just our new friend,
y = 2x
…all over again, right? Plug the number of days into x and you get the number of microbes. It even works right at the first moment, with zero days elapsed, because, remember, 20 = 1.
So it turns out that exponential functions can describe population growth, too.
But what if the microbe takes a half a day to divide, instead of just one? After 12 hours, there are two of them, after a full day there are four of them, after a day and a half, there are eight of them, after only two days (not four) there are sixteen of them.
There are two ways to adjust the function to describe this accurately.
The obvious one is to gimmick it so that you’re raising 2 to the 1st power after half a day instead of one, and you can do that by multiplying x by 2 (written as 2x), up in the exponent, like this:
y = 22x
And this works out, see:
x is 1, y is 2×2 = 4.
x is 2, y is 2x2x2x2 = 16.
You can even put in 1/2 or 1 1/2 for x and it works! This is because you double those numbers and get 1 and 3.
x is 1/2, y is 2.
x is 1 1/2, y is 2x2x2= 8.
Four generations, which produces 16 microbes, now takes 2 days, instead of 4, but still produces 16 microbes.
I said there were two ways to gimmick the equation, and I showed you one. The other thing you can do is change the base. In this case, if you replace 2 with 4, like this:
y = 4x
…it works properly.
x is 1 day, y is 4 = 4.
x is 2 days, y is 4×4 = 16.
But note, we just tripped over something new.
We know that at half a day, you have two microbes. If you plug 1/2 into the equation, therefore, it should mean:
y = 41/2 = 2.
And if you plug one and a half, or 3/2s in, you should get:
y = 43/2 = 8.
We’ve just learned what happens when you put a fraction in. The 1/2 gives you 2, which is the square root of four. Raising a number to the 1/2th power is the same as taking its square root!
And we can see something else, too. Let’s look at the second one again, but let’s rewrite 3/2 as 1 + 1/2.
y = 41+1/2 = 8.
But don’t we know that 4 raised to the fourth first power is 1 4 [edited at about 11 pm same day], and the square root of four is 2, and that 4 x 2 is 8? It’s as if adding numbers in the exponent results in multiplying!
y = 41+1/2 = 41 x 41/2 = 8.
And indeed, that’s so. And this will be a key thing to remember.
Implications of Exponential Growth
OK, so with that bit of background, let’s take…hmm…1024 microbes in a petri dish. And let’s go back to the case where the microbes split once a day. (And, note this works better if they don’t all split at the same time!)
After the first day, we have 2048 microbes. After the second day, we have 4096 microbes. After the third day, we have 8192 microbes. And after the 4th day, we have 16,384 microbes. We’re doubling every day, but we’re not starting with 1. How do we write this?
We can start with our old friend:
y = 2x
…to express the fact that we’re doubling every day, but we need to multiply by 1024 to start with.
y = 1024 x 2x
Work this through and you’ll see it’s correct.
You can even use this to figure out how many microbes you had the day before you started, by setting x to -1, then you have 1024 x 1/2 = 512.
And you can even figure out where you’ll be half a day in. It’ll be 1024 x 21/2, and we know 21/2 is the square root of 2, which is about 1.414…, so you should have about 1448 microbes.
But wait just a minute! Remember that adding in the exponent is the same as multiplying outside the exponent?
We’re multiplying outside the exponent. Can we express 1024 as 2-to-the-something power, and add it?
Well, yes you can. As it happens, 1024 is 210. (And you thought I’d pulled that number out of my rectal database!)
So you could write your equation for starting out with 1024 microbes like this:
y = 2x+10
You have your “two to the x” and your “2 to the tenth power” put together in the exponent.
Let’s say your petri dish is full at 1,048,576 microbes. This is 220. So it will happen when x is ten, in other words after only ten days.
If, on the other hand, you start with only one microbe, your petri dish is full after twenty days.
If you go to a jumbo petri dish, twice the size of the ordinary petri dish, then it takes eleven days to fill (if you start with a thousand microbes), or twenty one days (starting with one microbe).
Doubling capacity does not double the number of days you can run your experiment. It adds ONE day. And in general, any realistic increase in capacity adds very little time to how long you can let the exponential function run.
I’m going to say that again, in a slightly different way:
When dealing with exponential growth, increasing capacity doesn’t buy you much time.
And I will say it again because it’s important.
When dealing with exponential growth, increasing capacity doesn’t buy you much time.
It’s also true that reducing the size of the population by, say, half, doesn’t buy you much time either. If you were to kill half the microbes in the petri dish at any time in the process…you’ve bought yourself one day. It doesn’t matter whether you kill half of them after day 1 (going from 2 to 1) or on day 19 (going from about half a million to a quarter of a million). You still hit a million one day late, on the 21st day.
But there IS one hope. You can slow things down, greatly, by changing the base to something smaller or by being able to divide the exponent (which as we saw above, are equivalent). Either one of these has the effect of increasing the doubling time, which works proportionately.
If you double the amount of time it takes for your microbes to double, you have twice as much time before they fill the petri dish. Here’s the formula:
y = 2x/2
The exponent is x/2 instead of x.
And it works, it now takes 40 days to go from one microbe, to a full petri dish, instead of 20 days.
If you’re dealing with exponential growth, increasing the doubling time by X percent buys you X percent more time before you’re overwhelmed. Decreasing the doubling time, on the other hand, is a really, really good way to fuck yourself over.
More generally, you can write the equation like this:
y = 2x/d
…where d is the amount of time it takes to double. If d is two days, then it takes two days for x/d to equal 1, and thus it takes two days to double. Make d 3 or 4 or 27, it works the same way.
Applying This To Epidemics
Epidemics start out as exponential growth. They start out that way, but eventually, the curve bends over, and then there is a decline. But for just a moment, let’s look at the “growth” part of things.
The number of people who have the disease grows exponentially.
The number of people who have the disease bad enough to need the hospital, is smaller, but still grows exponentially.
The number of people who die from the disease, is smaller yet, but also grows exponentially.
In fact, if 12.5 percent of the people who catch the disease need to be hospitalized, all you’ve done is take the exponential growth function for the number of people who have the disease, and stuck a 0.125 in front of it, like this:
y = 0.125 x 2x/d
…but that 0.125 is basically -3 doublings! So basically,
y =2x/d – 3
(It’s a rule of mathematical notation that you divide x by d, then subtract 3. You do not subtract 3 from d, then divide that into x. That would be written as x/(d – 3) if that was intended. Many a computer bug comes from people not using parentheses when they should have.)
And likewise, something similar happens with the percentage of people that die. All three double at the same rate, but, in essence, their starting points are different.
So if you’re watching an epidemic, and a thousand people catch the disease in, say, 30 days (that’s doubling every three days), and then one person dies…you will have a thousand deaths 30 days later. By which point, a million people have caught the disease.
As I said before, the exponential growth at some point stops. Clearly it must stop once the entire population has caught the disease. There’s no one new to catch it and double the number of victims. But usually it stops well before that point. This is attributed to the bacterium or virus becoming less virulent over time.
And that’s a key point.
It’s why we want to increase the doubling time. Because that way fewer doublings happen before the reversal happens, and that means fewer victims.
And reducing the doubling time is important for another reason. Remember I mentioned that some fraction of the people end up in a hospital? THAT, it turns out is the critical constraint. We only have so many hospital beds, and even fewer ventilators (as the current disease requires for treatment). If the exponential growth hits that limit, then many victims cannot be treated, and will be left to die. There’s no way around that.
Adding hospital capacity by (say) kicking ever non-epidemic patient out is a stopgap, likely to stave things off by one or two doubling periods, at most. Remember, any realistic increase in capacity gets overwhelmed in short order!
We have to slow the doubling rate. That buys us time, time for the pathogen to weaken, time for us to come up with new treatments, maybe even time for us to come up with a vaccine that will cut the new number of victims to nearly zero.
How do we increase the doubling rate? Well, a given person who has the disease (whether he knows it yet or not), can only give the disease to people he contacts, or who contacts anything he left the pathogen on (he sneezes near them, touches a doorknob after wiping his nose and then the new victim touches the doornob, etc.) If you can reduce this number, you’ve reduced the doubling rate. That’s why washing your hands, avoiding direct contact, etc., are so important.
It’s important whether or not you think you, or the other person, have the disease, because you can have the disease days before you know it, and be giving it to other people and never even know it.
They are MORE IMPORTANT than any travel ban President Trump could impose, in fact. Because the only thing the travel ban does is reduce the number of carriers. Remember what I said about killing half the microbes in the petri dish? It buys you ONE doubling time and only that. Reducing the current number of carriers–unless it is all the way to zero, only buys you doubling times.
This is why I simply don’t buy arguments that now that we’ve gotten rid of travelers coming in, so we’re basically all right. No, because we have a resident population of contagious people. And it seems small now. But so what? It just means we’re in an early part of the nasty exponential curve.
And with the Wuhan Coronavirus, the doubling period is about three days.
And exponential growth is why I lost my patience with people jumping someone who claimed there were 1700 victims now, when (apparently) one source showed 1200. The original poster was trying to explain exponential growth, and someone was quibbling over today’s numbers. Even if the original poster’s number was twice as big as it should have been…it buys you one doubling period.
And with the Wuhan Coronavirus, the doubling period is about three days.
And people who compare it to the flu, saying only X number of people have died, compared to this year’s flu.
Just give it a few doubling periods. And with the Wuhan Coronavirus, the doubling period is about three days.
No, we HAVE to increase the doubling time. The measures (and advice) Trump outlined on Friday, at last, address this. All the private closures of big-crowd events address this, all the people cancelling plane rides and cruises (or having the carriers cancel them) help too. They represent fewer opportunities for people who have it, to give it to someone else which means one victim takes longer to become two victims.
It’s all about that doubling rate, not today’s absolute numbers.
We can defeat this thing this way, before we become another Italy. (But for now, we have the same doubling rate they do, and we’re 11-16 days behind them.)
The irony is, if all of these measures, which some describe as “panic,” work, someone will come along and say, “See they weren’t needed!” Yes they were.
Viruses
My main point made, I’ll talk, some, about viruses.
It became apparent in the 1800s that many diseases were caused by bacteria. But a whole host of other diseases behaved like bacterial diseases–they got transmitted by the same sorts of events–but no bacteria could ever be seen under a microscope.
Whatever was carrying these diseases was too small to be seen.
Eventually, these things were “seen” under an electron microscope. The objects in question were too small for visible light to show (they were smaller than one wavelength of light–which is pretty doggone small, a bit less than a thousandth of a millimeter, tops). But they were larger than the wavelength of an electron, so an electron microscope could see them.
These viruses were, in fact, way too small to be alive. It takes a certain amount of chemical “machinery” to make a cell, that is capable of producing all the sorts of molecules it needs to function and be able to reproduce, by copying the DNA, copying everything else in the cell, and splitting.
The viruses were nothing but RNA (DNA’s less sturdy cousin) and a coat of protein. The virus cannot reproduce the RNA within it, nor can it produce the coat of protein. It’s not alive. It’s nothing more than an inert envelope full of instructions on how to produce more such envelopes; it needs something else–the cells in your body–to execute the instructions.
That’s why no antibiotic will kill it. It’s not alive. Even an “anti viral” drug doesn’t destroy the virus.
The virus reproduces by getting inside one of your cells. Once in there, the outer protein coat dissolves, and the RNA instructs the cell machinery on how to make more viruses. The cell machinery is designed to do whatever the RNA in the cell tells it to do, and it dutifully does so. (The cell’s original RNA comes out of the nucleus, it’s created by transcribing the DNA, and this happens in an orderly fashion so the cell makes what it needs to function.)
The virus RNA gets copied, and the protein sheaths are copied too. Eventually the cell is full of the damn things and bursts–releasing hundreds of new copies of the virus out where they can infect new cells.
An antiviral, as I said, doesn’t kill the virus, but it does slow this process down. Maybe slows it down enough that the body’s immune system–which can destroy viruses–has time to learn how to do so before the virus kills the host.
Slower is better; that’s the moral of this post.
You’ve done a great public service here! Thank you!!! 😀 <3
Let’s see if the math muggles understand it first, before calling it a success.
Let me test to see if superscripts work in comments: 235U.
Wow that would have made my life MUCH easier over on the U tree.
The secret: [sup]whateveryouwannasuperscript[/sup] only use angle brackets, not square ones.
Subscripts are [sub] [/sub]. E.g., H[sub]2[/sub]O would give H2O.
Well, I did Google, muggles 😉
Masters level Mech Engineer from MIT here, Steve. You did an excellent job on breaking this all down into digestible pieces for the readers here who don’t have a math background. And more importantly, how this math relates to and describes natural phenomena, such as population growth.
As an aside, my kids know very well that their dad’s favorite number is “e”. 2.718281828459045. (That’s as far as I can get from memory)
Pi is much more famous, but less impressive IMO. Perhaps as pi is simpler to understand. It’s the constant that relates a circles diameter to its circumference. Easy to grok.
Whereas “e” is the constant in the equation y=x[sup]e[/sup] where the derivative remains the same. That is, the slope at any point along that special unique curve is equal to the x value. The slope at x=1 is one. The slope at x=2 is two. The slope at x=10 is ten. And so on. Much more complex to understand, but to us math nerds, it’s magical.
Normally, this oddity in the math world would just be a side note for nerds to marvel at.
BUT, it turns out that this magical curve represents all sorts of things in the real world. It shows up everywhere, including in biology, sociology, probability, electrodynamics, quantum mechanics, economics, et. al. Mother Nature loves “e”, it seems.
I recommend anyone to read up on “e” a little. Steve does a fantastic job of setting the stage for this little guy. Go a little deeper into it and, soon, your kids will know too that your fav number is “e”!
Wow, Steve, such a great job!! I am not a math person and I was able to follow through step by step and think I “got” it. You are a natural teacher, laying it out so simply and clearly, I forgot it was math!!!
You’re a good guy, Steve, well done.
2 AM, and finally my day is made…Smokin Hot Daughn said something nice to me.
Maybe she’ll save you a blueberry muffin!
I knew you would be perfect for this. You’re the king!
Wow, two within ten minutes!
I should buy a lottery ticket.
Ummmm … Steve? Do you have some math FOR a lottery ticket?
Askin’ for a friend … 😉
Steve,
EXCELLENT!!!
Exponential is one of those things scientists learn early and have trouble explaining to non-math types.
“Well it is exponential, that’s why it is dangerous, don’t you understand?”
Perhaps it is easier to get the point across to the math haters by likening it to a nuclear reaction going critical.
WIKI
“For every fission in the material, it is likely that there will be “k” fissions after the next mean generation time (Λ). The result is that the number of fission reactions increases exponentially, according to the equation {\displaystyle e^{(k-1)t/\Lambda }}e^{(k-1)t/\Lambda }, where t is the elapsed time. Nuclear weapons are designed to operate under this state.”
*https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_chain_reaction
The Wuhan Virus is the biological equivalent of a nuclear weapon. Just a lot slower and it leaves the infra-structure intact. 😎
When it comes to math, there are three types of people.
1. Those who understand it
2. Those who don’t
3. ………… bwwhahahaa, gotcha!
Well…most non technical won’t follow that one either.
But everyone can relate to compound interest.
Thank you Professor Steve. I f’ing hate math. I don’t get it. I never have and it gives me a headache. You explained carefully, thoroughly, and I still can’t follow you point by point which really frustrates me. But……I understand enough. I get what you are saying about the doubling, and the length of time for the doubling. I understand perfectly the crucial point that we simply must flatten that curve.
I know so many are distressed about the social distancing, but that is the ONLY thing that can slow it. The WuFlu has been here in Washington state circulating for weeks. It has much wider community spread than is recognized. I don’t think we’re all going to die………..but I worry like heck where we will be in a couple of weeks with regards to stress on the medical system and hospitals.
The doctors here are starting to call and cancel routine appointments or handle via phone…….anything to keep people home.
“The irony is, if all of these measures, which some describe as “panic,” work, someone will come along and say, “See they weren’t needed!” Yes they were.” You are so right. If PDJT is successful he’ll be dumped on by people who are angry they didn’t have basketball or a trip to Disneyland who will blame him for their inconvenience. Me? I’ll be thrilled if we avoid the Italy situation.
Only problem with your article is the people who should read it won’t. You have a nice writing style. But math……..oh, my aching head.
I tried to compress several days worth in there (and at least I didn’t go into logarithms!) so I’m not surprised you’re overloaded.
I wonder if it’d be worthwhile for someone in your shoes to read it, then stop when you hit the first brick wall, and work it back and forth in your mind, until you figure it out.
Then come back a few days later, the brick wall should be later on.
Maybe. I’ve concluded my brain is just not wired right to grasp math. Or philosophy. I just…………can’t. I accept my limitations. I made myself read it through to the end and was just darned happy that I could grasp the overall concept well enough to understand its importance, even if I can’t follow you through the weeds. I think you did a really good job.
Does this mean I’m a math muggle?
I was hoping that people who were reasonably intelligent who didn’t know math could understand it. You sort of half did–you don’t understand the math but you got my point anyway. I’ll count that as a win…and take as my reward one free ogle.
🤩🤩🤩💃💃💃❣ You’re all right, Steve!!!
Can I get a second ogle?
*Laughing* You betcha!!!
[The shovel looks hungry; I’d better not ask for a kiss.]
Good plan! Always quit while you’re ahead!
Steve, thank you for the instruction. I knew about compound interest. But I’m kind of in the boat with Sylvia, but what you say makes sense to me. Thank you, sir.
True story: When I had Gunner, loaded up on drugs and at my most vulnerable point…… the nurse cleaned him off and handed him to me. I wanted to say something profound to my newborn son and couldn’t think of anything meaningful.
So, I told him about the Theory of 72 and Compound Interest.
Aaah, yes, the accountant!
Here’s one from math/electrical engineering. It has five of the most important numbers in math, all in ONE equation:
eiπ + 1 = 0.
I do wish you lived next door.
Crap, the superscripts didn’t work. Try again.
eiπ + 1 = 0.
i is the square root of minus one. What it means to raise a number to that power is…a bit hard to imagine. But nonetheless it can be proved that you get trig functions out of multipling numbers by i and raising e to that power.
Oh you sweet talker you, Steve. It’s sort of like Jamie Lee Curtis saying “say something in Italian to me” in A Fish Called Wanda.
I just remembered something else, speaking of things whispered into the ears of newborns: In Islam, a father is supposed to speak the shahada (“There is no god but Allah and Mohammad is his prophet”) into the child’s ear and that makes him/her a Muslim–regardless of what the kid might decide later in life they’d rather have been. And of course the penalty for apostasy is death.
So when you get right down to it, the ‘Cliff’s Notes’ version, what you’re essentially saying is, if DJT puts out ‘Wanted: Dead or Alive’ bounties on all the bad guys, we can finally end this thing once and for all?
😁
*sigh*
No jokes or music videos…..
I’m the one who asked where MAGA Mom got her figures since neither CDC nor JHU (now largely dysfunctional site) matched hers and I disagreed with her projections according to what I have seen in GA and FL as far as increases. I desperately hope MM is wrong – that the US will not have 5000 cases by (did she say) Sunday – tomorrow?
As for MATH (shudder) I am firmly in Sylvia’s boat. It’s worse than Greek to me. I have an aversion to it. As an artist with two degrees in drawing and painting, I could do geometry fairly well, since it’s visual.
Because I have such respect for you and your brilliant explanations of the stars and other counting stuff, I dutifully read through your brilliant treatise with many shudders, especially when you began to play MATH (shudder) game with Daughn which was beyond my ability to kin.
Here is my non-MATH (shudder) reasoning about the virus and its spread to date and why I disagreed with MAGA Mom’s assertions.
1 – I’ve been following GA and FL closely – by the numbers and the county maps and lists that I requested they include on their webpages because of my daughter’s and our family’s proximity to both GA and FL (and why my nom-de plume is GA/FL)
2 – I’m seeing a non-MATH (shudder) non-exponential virulence to this situation (especially in FL) to the increases and the numbers of cases tested and found negative and to the number of cases found positive.
3. So far, we are not seeing exponential spread or virulence in these states – the positives remain contained in small areas and among small demographic (the cruise line or foreign travel as denoted in FL) the exposure/spread – after 2-3 weeks past the first cases (2) were announced in FL is not conducive to exponential spread. In FL, we haven’t seen any in the capital city where our state and DC legislators are from all over the state and have shook hands and kissed ladies and babies to a fare thee well.
3. In GA, there is still only one case in my home town county after 2 weeks and the contagion remains around the Atlanta area….and hasn’t spread to Columbus or LaGrange or Athens or Macon – even after air travel. GA cases must be due to infection while in foreign countries.
3. Nor are we seeing very many caregivers/family members succumbing to the disease.
4. Perhaps it’s too soon. Perhaps we will see hospital workers collapse, people collapse in the streets, people drug from their homes be murdered for telling the truth (China) or people flooding hospitals
(Yep, I purposely repeated # 3 just for mischief’s sake)
OK – tell me how and why I’m wrong. I desperately hope to be right.
OH yeah – I typed all this without any coffee whatsoever and with a 75.248 (approx.) year old brain and thankfully no serious underlying health conditions (yet apparent), ongoing medications, problems except for the usual age-related aches, wrinkles, spots, sags, bags, etc..
Further un-caffeinated thoughts:
IMO the spread that we have seen around the country is caused and limited by three (or more) factors:
1. Location – certain areas of our country are open to uncensored, unmonitored population increase and practice laxity of sanitation (leftist sanctuary cities and states).
A. This indicates illegals, possibly from Asia may be working in the nursing homes as cleaners, attendants, cooks, etc. B. Authorities in these areas may even want a spread of coronavirus for screwy ideological reasons, such as to be part of the global pathos, C. For hard-hearted greed – it’s a reason to declare a state of emergency – get federal funds.
2. Vulnerability – A. elderly who have traveled and have underlying health conditions
B. elderly confined in a nursing home, workers in the cruise lines)
3. Environment – A. people traveled to certain hot spots for infection and are vulnerable due to age and lowered immune system. B. People who worked in the cruise and perhaps the airline industry.
4. Some of the cases may be due to multiple factors and some may be single factor cases.
Example of exponents.
“How Iran Became a Global Vector of Infection for COVID-19“
https://www.tabletmag.com/jewish-news-and-politics/middle-east/300948/iran-coronavirus-covid-19
“…Additionally, several countries have discovered cases of COVID-19 that originated with travelers from Iran in the early days of March. One of the first cases in New Zealand came from a family who had recently traveled to the Islamic Republic. At least three of the first 12 cases in Canada came via Iran, as did all 33 initial cases in Iraq. In the United States, the first confirmed COVID-19 case in New York City was a health-care worker who had returned from Iran, and Los Angeles also identified a coronavirus patient from Iran who passed through LAX. India evacuated hundreds of Indian Muslim pilgrims from affected areas in Iran, many of whom tested positive for the coronavirus. And in Lebanon, reports indicate—difficult to confirm—that Hebzollah officials (possibly including Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah himself) had contracted the virus from an Iranian delegation that visited the country headed by the speaker of Iran’s parliament, Ali Larijani. There are also reports of new cases in China that were transmitted there by travelers from Iran.
…”
Cases in FL – note that “travel related” means that they can still trace it to an overseas caught case – both direct and indirect. Some have caught it from the traveler.
http://www.floridahealth.gov/newsroom/2020/03/031420-0205-covid19.pr.html
CA has not updated yet this morning. These are yesterday’s numbers:
Ages of all confirmed positive cases:
Age 0-17: 4 cases
Age 18-64: 143 cases
Age 65+: 98 cases
Unknown: 2 cases
24 – Cases of positive tests related to federal repatriation flights
223 – Cases not related to repatriation flights
65 – Travel related
52 – Person-to-person acquired
56 – Community acquired (map of community transmission by county in California- PDF)
50 – Under investigation
https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/Immunization/nCOV2019.aspx
check at 11 am est. for today’s numbers
GA/FL, since you are ‘visual’ this is the visual presentation of exponential for the China Wuhan Flu virus spread with no ‘herd immunity’ (Top)
This is nuclear reaction which is a bit more complicated and probably closer to real life. The China data was suspect because it fit the curve PERFECTLY!:
I saw this when you posted it earlier and saved the link.
My contention is that the various MATH (shudder) projections will be affected and are being affected by a number of factors that make them unreliable.
I tried to list them and there may be more than I am aware. What I am seeing so far in the states that affect me and my family, particularly my daughter who has doctors in both GA and FL is that (so far) we do not see exponential multiplication due to virulence, but due to testing.
The entry of the virus into the US has been mainly two routes – via persons on airplanes returning from foreign hot spots and via cruise lines for some known (traveling to hot spots) and some suspected reasons (hiring and/or transporting illegals)
We have NOT seen a bunch of virulent community spread – SO FAR. 2-3 weeks will tell. By then, the flu season will be largely over in the South.
China is not the US and the US is not Japan or S Korea or Italy. We can’t say it will be the same here due to the (shudder) MATH paths that occurred in those countries. Look at Japan and Taiwan – the real outliers. I think the US will be like that unless mischief/nefarious actors try to sabotage the President’s and the virus team’s efforts.
In WA, as I can attest from both good and horrible experience having a disabled daughter and family who live in a retirement community, health caring for elderly is not a top of the most desired careers – and the level of competence, reliability, hygiene, lifestyles and attitudes of caregivers is sometimes appalling.
Another factor – maliciousness – we have had leftists threaten to infect people. We know leftist governors sanctuary socialist policies are appalling and dangerous too.
Those are all factors that will affect the (shudder) MATH.
Finally – it will only be after the disease has concluded that we know how, how virulently and on how many it took its toll.
GA/FL,
That is why I said the illustration of the nuclear reaction is closer to reality.
‘Social Distancing’ can also mean city vs town vs rural.
As the guys @ Chiefios were discussing, apartments and hotels can be bad news depending on construction.
For example the fan in the bathroom… If there is one common vent pipe that all the fans connect to, you can have the situation E.M. ran into in a motel. Some guy was smoking in the bathroom and had the vent fan on to get rid of the smoke. The cigarette smoke ended up in E.M.’s room…. Now think of the virus turning up in feces and the feces being aerosolized and hanging around for at least 20 minutes when you flush….
THINK of the public bathrooms….
And yes, that curve is not going to be mathematically perfect. THAT is why a guy on twitter said China was making up the numbers. they were a perfect fit.
Apparently Gregor Mendel’s numbers were too close to perfect too. He got *close* to a quarter of his pea plants showing the double recessive phenotype, so he figured it probably should be a quarter and rounded it. There’s always some deviation due to simple random chance.
This is horrible. Not even a filter!
This is what it looks like in the infected area of China
Posobiec *
Tweets by JackPosobiec
– did a series of wet market tweets – even more shudder-worthy than M***
Diet adventurism was a factor in SARS-1, MERS, Ebola, Marburg and in our current affliction, SARS-CoV-2, affectionately known as COVID-19
I never saw a wet market before. This is flat out amazing. This woke me up.
We know that G-Ds commandments are health guidelines as well as civil/sociological order and out of love…because G-D IS LOVE, TRUTH, LIFE and His nature/mind/will is the foundation/source/basis for all law.
We break the law, we break ourselves and others.
Was just talking yesterday about that with the Eucharistic Minister from our parish who brought Eucharist to me while I’m holed up from chemo. Yep. My Lord and Master provided us with common sense happy, fruitful and healthful guidelines.
May all the blessings and peace of the LORD – the Shalom – be with you and uphold and deliver you at this time of trial and suffering!
There is great power in the Eucharist that I can attest. Greek word – Anamnesis – means the Eucharist brings the actual first Lord’s Supper – the Body and Blood of the Lord into effect for us – the Eternal Power and Presence of the Passover to us by spiritual means.
Beautifully said GA/FL.
Sadly, the Eucharistic Minister phoned me to tell me the parish is suspending the home visits until this virus stuff is over or contained. I believe it necessary to do. Our pastor is an engineer by education and extremely practical and direct.
When I could not go out after a personal tragedy, I used juice and made unleavened bread of oil, salt, water, whole grain flour and asked the LORD to bless it and took it even instead of meals…because I couldn’t eat anything else. It was a holy time…and made my loss bearable, even a cherished now in retrospect….because of HIS very near Presence.
That is a very beautiful thing to do. Thank you for sharing it.
When HE is all we have, we learn HE is all we need.
I know. 🙂
I attended church–Catholic service–once in a small town in Utah (I was with a Catholic friend). As one might imagine, there were fewer people in that room than I had fingers on my hands, and even the officiating person wasn’t actually a priest. He’d brought the Eucharist from another town, where it had been prepared by a priest.
That’s how they get around practical restrictions in areas with very few Catholics.
GA/FL adapted, improvised and overcame.
Yes, that is usually necessary in small towns and out of the way places. I wish married deacons (often older gentlemen who are either widowers or in a long term stable marriage) could become priests. Maybe some day.
He has his head screwed on straight.
Steve, most engineers and real science peeps do. Bet yours is front and center. 🙂
Love this priest. His sermons are direct, five minutes or under, and everyone remembers what he said. He is a rare cleric. Although the other engineer priest I am friends with is similar.
Wish engineering background was mandatory for becoming a priest. LOL
For example, foods prohibited in the Bible must be handled very carefully and inspected, stored with utmost caution.
For example, I have a family member who is allergic to shrimp – unless she prepares it herself – and washes, removes both the front and back veins. Then she has no reaction.
Fresh meat – pork, chicken, beef, lamb must be inspected, handled and stored with care and modern knowledge and must be cooked to a certain temperature.
Our country has stringent inspection and sanitation practices to limit the consumption of tainted and infected foods.
Eating anything in foreign and 3rd world countries can be dangerous to say the least.
In videos we saw Chinese eating live baby mice, live bats…. it’s a sport there/
Some Japanese eat puffer fish and die.
For the sake of the world – and to stop future pandemics – some of these practices must be stopped.
Just like some of the Islamic practices (jihad, conquest, rape, pedophilia, slave and drug trade) must be stopped.
“…Our country
hasHAD stringent inspection and sanitation practices to limit the consumption of tainted and infected foods….”….
SHIELDING THE GIANT:
USDA’s “Don’t Look, Don’t Know” Policy for Beef Inspection
https://www.whistleblower.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Shielding_the_Giant_Final_PDF.pdf
The reason I LOATH Senator Burr is because he supported the DemonRat/globalist trashing of our very good Food Safety System and substituting the WTO HACCP system that allows the CORPORATIONS to do the inspection. The food inspectors are now relegated to inspecting the PAPER WORK.
WORSE, if they screw up butchering chickens they are NOW allowed to just wash off the feces and sell for human consumption.
I wish I now didn’t know that. Somebody needs to make PDJT aware!
He probably knows. I hope the meat he serves in his hotels and clubs is tested, for the reasons below.
Think of the e-coli outbreaks in the 1990s, which were unheard of before then. All of us wondered WHY. Now, we know.
There’s more here — from ***2010***:
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2010/05/18/american-meat-is-even-more-disgusting-than-you-thought.aspx
FTA:
‘… one burger could have come from hundreds of animals and different parts of the world.
Despite this, there is no federal requirement for meat grinders to test their ingredients for E.coli prior to selling them. And most retailers do not test either.’
American Foodservice had to stop testing in 2000:
‘American Foodservice, which grinds 365 million pounds of hamburger a year, had to stop testing trimmings 10 years ago because slaughterhouses did not want to sell to them!’
Costco also ran into problems:
‘One retailer that does test their trimmings for E. coli before grinding is Costco, and according to The New York Times, Tyson will not supply them because they don’t want their product tested.’
Testing is optional, not mandatory:
‘Back in August 2008, the USDA issued a guideline urging meat processors to test their ingredients before grinding. But the guideline is only optional and has been met with criticism from the meat industry.
‘As the New York Times reported, Dr. Kenneth Petersen, an assistant administrator with the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service, said they could mandate testing, but they had to first consider its impact on the companies, and not just you, the consumer. Dr. Petersen told The New York Times:
“I have to look at the entire industry, not just what is best for public health.”
‘So that gives you an idea of how safe your meat supply truly is.’
While it might be something to marvel over the kind of wet market shown in that vid are quite common all over the world.
Meanwhile not buying the vid. You don’t have a population density like that in a big city and operate a grocery that smoothly, barley being shopped, while having less stores as the story claimed. The customers in that store fit the bill for the amount of people you saw through out the video. Something is out of whack with that story.
Thanks. Gives a good inside view of things.
More from a barely caffeinated mind….
Thankfully, this early projection didn’t happen…. poor math or a virus hitting a civilized, hygienated* environment?
Remember when David Frost said of Americans that “when we got all our body odors extinguished, all we did was ride around in our cars”?!?
Except for some leftist run cities and states, America and its people have so many modern sanitation, hygiene, inspection stop-gaps that germs and bacteria hardly have a chance!
Hospitals used to have a hard time with staph and other pathogen infections, but now – UV-C lights and other disinfection means have changed that.
Now, MIT, with the help of AI, has come up with a new non-toxic antibiotic that they named after Hal the super-computer and has saved our troops from an exotic Middle Eastern bacterial infection. http://www.digitaljournal.com/tech-and-science/technology/op-ed-a-i-halicin-molecular-antibiotics-major-mit-success/article/567760
That didn’t happen (thankfully). It was a projection of potential, someone playing with the numbers to get an idea across. It did not take off then.
…but doubling every two days *IS* happening – currently, demonstrably.
Pick Any day since the virus cases began to grow and you will find that 2 days later the cases are ~double. When I first crunched the numbers Wed evening I was truly surprised at how fast the disaster load of cases was coming. I know the professionals in the medical system and gov were not because they had done this weeks ago and every day that the growth rate stayed consistent they already knew how many days out we were from disaster and were working hard on plans behind the scenes that POTUS revealed and discussed.
I was surprised Wed when I crunched the numbers and yet I had been watching this thing for well over 2 months now and knew it was coming but was still surprised at how fast – I hadn’t “got” the trajectory we are on or the rapidity of our approach to the disaster level load of cases with complications.
So I shared. If/when a person does “get” it doesn’t mean we need to freak out. I had my moment of actual panic stress about 1.5 wks ago when something I wanted ordered was no longer available. I calmed down and found other solutions and moved on – and learned a lesson about staying calm. What it does mean is that we take it seriously, wisely and calmly…and prepare to stay home for a while.
I had “gotten” it weeks and weeks ago…but still had no idea how close we are to overload. Because I do realize how close we are to overload I am not only not surprised by the many actions of cancelation I see happening but actively support them and encourage them. We are being gently but quickly lead to quarantine.
Just look at the numbers of reported cases (NONE of which are repatriated cases – cases that had the virus and were flown back home b/c US citizens):
2/26 – 15
2/28 – 19
2/29 – 24 (+5)
3/1 – 42 (+18)
3/2 – 57 (+15)
3/3 – 85 (+28)
3/4 – 111 (+26)
3/5 – 175 (+64)
3/6 – 252 (+77)
3/7 – 352 (+100)
3/8 – 495 (+143)
3/9 – 643 (+148)
3/10 – 932 (+289)
3/11 – 1,198 (+266)
3/12 – 1,577 (+395)
3/13 – 2,184 (+607)
3/14…currently at 2,340 & will be ~3,000 by the end of the day which is double what the numbers were on Thursday, 2 days ago.
These numbers of Reported cases. If you could count the mild cases, the numbers would be Much higher.
The worst cases are the ones that matter per projected hospital use because that is where the disaster is developing VERY Quickly.
The numbers at this web site I use are ahead because they are update constantly. What I have noticed regarding numbers being reported:
-www dot worldometers dot info slash coronavirus slash #countries – this site has the most up to date numbers. I watch the numbers here and then see the other locations catch up to these numbers. I see the numbers here and then see these same numbers used in the news and see WHO and the CDC have almost the same numbers…but at a lag time.
– WHO has been behind the CDC at times regarding US numbers. WHO updates daily, sometimes had updated 2x a day
-CDC updates daily (sometimes 2x) is at times behind State’s reported #s.
-State’s own numbers are mostly updated 1x per day so are not real time numbers with the number of cases verified and reported in the newspaper being higher than a given day’s totals at the TN Dept. of Health.
Unless something changes (and things are changing quickly to flatten the growth rate), we will be at a million cases quickly. 10% in the ICU…yikes!
It is like knowing a lion is charging you. He may be 1/2 mile away and not seem like a problem…but he is on his way fast. Jump in the safari jeep when he is 1/3 of a mile away and you are fine. Wait until he is 20 feet away and too late! Project out where this is going and how it will affect you and what you should do now to prepare for what is coming.
(PS: I stopped focusing on the origin weeks ago because I needed headspace to focus on the fact that it was here regardless of who/why/how/when. Those details don’t make any difference in how I deal with it here and now, in the reality of the virus. They do matter…just make Zero difference in how I know have to deal with the virus in our life and in our community at large.)
To sum: Small numbers over the last 2 weeks are what people of focused on and made jokes about but the snap shot on any given day of the current cases is not the issue. Growth rate is the issue.
I get that you are focusing on the growth rate being feed by travelers from overseas v. community spread. However, that many incoming only increases community spread and to family, caregivers, etc. This is exactly what has happened in Williamson and Davidson County TN…travelers–>>family–>>community. And this is what happened in WA, CA, NY and is happening in FL.
Projections v. today’s #s
You have put a lot of work and thought into this.
My response to all – We’ll see once the incubation for secondary exposure transpires.
We will also see how much personal hygiene, self-quarantine and public health intervention interfere with transmission.
There is also the possibility of something else you can’t mathematically calculate – leftists intentionally seeding communities to spread the virus.
Will we see hospitals overloaded?
People forced out of homes into hotels and warehouses that collapse?
Maybe only in California. Newsome has stupidly signed an order to requisition hospitals.
But most states are not going to go that way – because the USA ain’t Red China.
I still do not think a MATH (shudder) projection/prediction is possible.
Have not read about Newsome requisitioning hospitals. After getting through this superb article and posts, that’ll be next. California government managing anything is prescription for failure…resulting in disaster.
Newsome is requisitioning HOTELS. Some fear he will house illegals and homeless. Like Merkel did.
Yes. Had read that. Concerns will likely become reality.
Can’t recall the numskull politician that a few days ago stated, doctors should be able to prescribe housing.
Yeah, that’s just ass backwards, but that’s leftism for you.
The lefties continue to reveal new incapacities for logic, truth and decency.
Hotel rooms may have FCU’s in each room (Fan Coil Units) or direct wall tgrough AC/heating units. Outside air, individual thermostat. However, the corridors and public spaces are normally cooled and heated by a traditional HVAC system. There are little separations between those areas and guestrooms.
And these are certainly not clean rooms. These will be an eventual vessel for death, IMHO, unless completely overhauled.
Those direct to outside units are not usually clean either. I have cleaned a couple of them in dorms and such where my disabled daughter was living.
Legionaires Disease comes to mind where poorly maintained A/C units are concerned.
Yes, indeed. They are simply not clean.
They are planning to do that in England, too — if necessary.
Think of it this way, if business and tourist levels have fallen — and new coronavirus accommodation has to be sought, then, empty hotels are the answer.
I had to wrap my head around that, too, but it makes sense. Already available building, no extra expense to construct one, only pay for the unoccupied rooms. (Am pretty sure they won’t let uninfected people in.)
Newsome is allegedly requisitioning Hotels – not hospitals. Merkel did the same during the height of the ‘migration’ of barbarian Islamists to Europe.
Hotels are not built for recovery of anyone in a pandemic.
Nor are their staff equipped to deal with persons with illness.
Newsome is just huffing, puffing, grandstanding.
Or he’s idiot enough to actually do it.
I would assume they would need a medical staff brought in…but from where?
Agreed….I VERY much hope the growth rate is not cont. at same pace! I think we will see a flattening of the growth rate due to the HUGE public push to be careful and to “socially distance” – i.e. stay home + the Many cancelations of events, schools, etc. which will hopefully combine to stop/greatly reduce the speed of the spread.
But we need to be prepared to stay home and to be hyper vigilant against all illnesses that could land us in the hospitals. We have to take it seriously and understand why the Gov, fed and state, + businesses are taking the whole thing so seriously. It IS serious!
Not because of the # of current cases but because of how contagious and the growth rate. Growth rate is the eye opening issue not Today’s # of cases or even Total Deaths/Hospitalizations.
Today’s #s are a snap shot of a growing situation. The rate of growth gives us the trajectory for which to prepare and against which to act – on an individual basis and as a group. The projections based on today’s growth rate explain the actions being taken by the gov. and why its being treated as a big deal.
–>> Does not explain origin, who/how/why/when and Certainly does not explain or excuse the politicalization and attempts to use it as an economic and political weapon by the Dems. And we need to keep our eyes wide open to other events, to our liberties as this situation develops and happens, and to how it is used + holding people accountable for the event. But all of that are separate from the reality of dealing with it and its affects, and dealing with quarantines/social distancing in the now as individuals.
We are handicapped by a lack of data. In many cases we don’t know someone has it until they end up in the hospital, so we cannot assess, really, the percentage of cases that are serious OR lethal.
We have a shot at determining the percentage of serious cases that end up being lethal, and that number is grim. We also know those serious cases respond–somewhat–to quality care.
The worry is, will we find ourselves so overwhelmed with serious cases we cannot give them quality care?
The numbers are NOT reassuring here. We CAN flatten the curve–we probably already have–but the lag time is up to two weeks between an action taken to stop/slow transmission, and seeing the result.
A lot can happen in two weeks.
Steve, 1+1 = 2 in our home for the long term. Just not sure about a news paper delivery and mail…
Play it safe!
Indeed! We were ‘notified’ of our first case in our county yesterday…one hour north. Means nothing!
Most excellent post, Steve, socks it right to the gut. I am more of a geometry romantic being in the interior architecture field, but completely understand!
Curb the curve of the Wuhan!!!!
Geometry is a personal favorite of mine too. In some ways easier to deal with because it’s visual.
Perhaps you know this already, but tHere is a field of “higher” math known as linear algebra. It’s just as big a power tool as calculus. I bring this up because there are two ways to understand it–as algebra and as geometry. Unfortunately the guy who taught it at school NEVER condescended to explain the geometric interpretation (I’d have to spend a lot of time figuring that out on my own) so it has always been a weak spot for me (I’m actually working on it, though).
Dang! Keep us posted. I would love to find out
more.
I was barely able to figure out calculus for a structures class, so I am no brain at this. Two Chinese classmates were able to get me ready for the final!
Yep, my brain works with geometry without fail. My father was the chief engineer of GTE for many years, so I may have received one single serving for geometry!
GTE? You dad was most likely electrical/electronics engineering, which is very calculus/trigonometry/linear algebra intensive; although there is a lot of geometry involved as well–if nothing else one uses the geometry to set up the calculus problem.
Ha!!! Little did I know!
Yes, electronics. He was responsible for nineteen patents for GTE. Many for VHS video porta-pacs. These were the first small cameras.
When I was in third grade I was asked to fill out my father’s occupation on an emergency card. I wrote down ‘office worker’, because I never knew what exactly what he did!!!!!
We had oscilloscopes in the basement, and a lot of other odd items!
I will have to ask him about the linear algebra.
So, I received the geometry smidgen!
To emphasize:
With exponential growth, what matters is the proportion from one day to the next NOT the absolute number on a given day.
That proportion determines the doubling rate via straightforward math (granted it’s logarithms, powers and roots but it’s still straightforward), and that doubling rate is what matters.
You’ve got the data at hand to show this in progress, in its early stages, and I hate having to harp on it, but some seem willfully blind to it.
GA/FL – I really have nothing else to say…except why I have shared.
Concerned that those who don’t realize the seriousness have not prepared to stay home, to deal with the current and upcoming economic and material supply chain interruptions or are not being cautious and intentional in going out in public and with our own health.
Other than that, to each his own opinions and understanding.
Just be careful and prepared
I shared your in depth post with hubby who is the engineer, math genius in this family. Not me. I’m one who has looked at the reality of flu occurrence, and deaths.
What I don’t grasp with hardcore intellectual understanding, I stand by instinctively grasping what’s going on. Absolutely, limiting exposure flattens the curve and decreases the rate of spread, along with the number of people who will get the virus. While I can’t give facts for believing this will turn out to be a significantly less health crisis than currently being projected by the “we’re all gonna die” group – who have motive to push such a narrative, I do believe that even our folks who actually get the virus will be significantly less – if for no other reason, the decreased social contact will markedly diminish exposure.
Virus degradation is going to play a part because of other variables – especially the warmer weather coming in – which is why flu “season” is in the winter months, and tapers off by spring.
Interesting little story. Our local hospital monopoly – Sentara owns them all – has set out “new” rules for visitors and visiting hours. Now only 2 per patient, and visiting hours ~ 8AM-7PM. Long ago, before society got to feeling so entitled and demanded that whatever they wanted they should have – which jettisoned dress codes almost everywhere – that same attitude jettisoned decorum in the hospital – they did away with visiting hours and how many could visit. Sometimes, we literally have zoolike conditions going on in our hospital rooms… And that brings in germs along with other issues.
Anyone wonder about the spread of disease??? Some part of that can be attributed to the informalization of so much in our society – including dressing like slobs. Less pride in our appearance contributes to less pride in our personal hygiene. Think about it.
Very soon, expect no visitors other than parents for pediatric cases, end of life for saying goodbye, etc.
Most hospitals will be implementing this same as nursing homes.
Hubby’s mother is in a nursing home, and they have already implemented strict visitation screening and hygiene.
Back in January when I went to the university teaching hospital downstate in Indiana, they were already screening people coming in, asking about foreign travel, etc. I saw someone turned away because she had brought her young daughter with her. Hospital staff actually escorted people to their stated destination in the hospital also.
Good.
Duchess posted a video that mentioned an NLM published article in Chinese – says false positive test results were off the charts. We need confirmation/studies/references that this is so.
I still question where Washington and California got all the early tests and confirmations….and the spread patterns in cruise port cities and leftist sanctuary states may indicate Chinese illegals have spread viruses those locales.
And I have yet ANOTHER hypothesis/theory about the spread of the virus:
That – CRUISE SHIPS – have been spreading illegal workers, drugs and diseases throughout our country and the world – possibly also been a vehicle for human sex trafficking.
Carnival Cruise line is based in Doral, FL – and owns the Princess cruise line as well as Costa and others.
It’s a huge multi-billion global industry.
There are also ties to Israel – the daughter of Carnival’s founder lives there and they have built hospitals, charities there.
Doral is close to Trump’s Mar A Lago and Trump International Doral – the cruise line owners have to be acquaintances, if not longtime friends.
PDJT once owned a major size yacht, owned casinos, has experience with the corruption in Vegas and Atlantic City and chose to get away from casino ownership. Trump knows the seas, the cruise lines, hotels and mega-businesses and mega wealth and celebrity operate and all the pitfalls therein. Think Epstein and the fact that Trump banned him. Hotels and cruise lines can be vehicles for sin, crime, trafficking and disease. We may be about to learn more about all of this.
Steve, Throughout your article, most of the lights came on for this muggles. Long time since my brain cells operated like this so early in my day, and on so little coffee. You have a gift for explaining complex. Well, complex for this muggles.
Absolutely started chuckling when, you introduced, “…let’s take…hmm…1024 microbes in a petri dish. My warped mind thought, Liawatha 😉
Muggles mind wanders easily. Perhaps, “A D D” of sorts. As I read, “And, It’s as important in mathematics as pi (π) is.” Today is pi (π) day 3-14. Local supermarket advertising pizza pi and fruit pi sale. Quasi quarantine of sorts in our home, so going to miss pi sale this year.
Enough of my dysfunctional mind. Thanks for Readers Digest explanation of exponential growth. And directly relating it to a critical fact. With Wuhan Coronavirus, why, slower (growth) is better.
Yep 1024 showed up with Fauxacahonas for the same reason it showed up here; everyone has two parents (biologically); there are 512 men and 512 women, long dead, who at one point made up you.
(That’s far enough back, actually, that there’s a distinct chance that the same person shows up two or three times in the list; his or her great-great-great-grandchildren don’t realize they’re related and proceed to do R/X rated things and have kids.)
🙂
Sorry, the flu is still buzzing around the brain. Will try again later since I figured geometric progression meant going from 1 to 625 in short order.
Like some others here, I don’t do math. I can follow what you are writing well enough, but I don’t know why that much detail is necessary to explain the central premise:
Every time the number of cases doubles, that means there are twice as many “infectors” running around, which is bad. If that slows down, then our medical system has a chance at least to treat all the sick.
So, I completely agree with your premise that we have to stop the “doubling” rate, even though my non-mathematical mind can’t completely follow all the reasons why.
Some people see that. Some others need to be dragged through the mathematical underpinnings. It looks like you didn’t need that, so I regret wasting your time.
No, no, it’s all good. I am literally incapable of complex math. I always have been. I can, however, for some reason, SEE the ultimate answer, I just have no idea how to get there. It’s not a waste of time EVER for anyone to have information, it’s just so complicated to me.
With further thought, I feel like I owe you an apology, Steve. I didn’t mean to sound frustrated with your excellent post, if I did. I am frustrated by my inability to follow mathematical explanations. My brain just says “no.”
No worries!
Aubergine
Like some others here, I don’t do math. I can follow what you are writing well enough, but I don’t know why that much detail is necessary to explain the central premise:
_____________________________________
It is an engineer thing 🙂
I shared Steve’s article with my husband and he enjoyed it because Steve spoke his language.
He ws able to explain it to me 🙂
Yes Steve did an excellent job that even math challenged person can understand.
So much taller here so many gifts people share and so much knowledge in one place.
Correction: Talent not taller
My mathematical son and DH talk over my head all the time.
Aubergine, I will,take a dive here, just based on the the idea of Steve’s excellent compound interest example…
Every time two people meet, this virus has the possibility to exponentially increase or compound itself, that means there are exponentially or compounded as many “infectors” running around, which is bad. If that slows down, the exponential or compounded growth slows, and then our medical system has a chance at least to treat all the sick.
Spock had the ‘exponential growth’ thingy already fingered out for quick data reference.
About 1:29 in length:
[youtube
Yep. The base there is 11, not two. One tribble has ten “kids”, now one tribble has become 11. The original tribble and the ten offspring are all fertile…
David Gerrold, the scriptwriter, actually calculated that number; he didn’t just pull it out of his rectal database.
The success of Star Trek was helped by the writers faithfulness in getting the details right in their scripts.
I’m sure there were still some blunders now and then in the facts.
…in the facts they relied on.
Oh, there were tons of inconsistencies, such as setting off at Warp 2, which is merely eight times the speed of light. Six months to the next star? I doubt it.
Much comes down to people not understanding just how damn BIG space is!
seems like an appropriate thread for this….
article…
Bill Gates Resigns From Microsoft Board
link…
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/bill-gates-resigns-microsoft-board?utm_campaign=&utm_content=ZeroHedge%3A+The+Durden+Dispatch&utm_medium=email&utm_source=zh_newsletter
Feb 13, 2020
…from the article’s Comments section…
” after 3 decades of giving everyone computer viruses, now he is moving on to focus on the real thing.”
indeed.
LOL.
The security in Windows has always sucked; he made a fundamental decision to let applications run at the same level of trust as the operating system. People warned him not to do that. That just made it easy for the hackers, virus writers, malware pukes, and other people who should be doused with gasoline and lit on fire, when found.
Bill has been doing that for a bit. October 19, 2019.
Steve?! Do we have any math for this crisis?😎
And with real beer, Guinness just a shelf below… the Desperados seem to still be around 🙂 Any Darmstädter Pils left there? Or Henninger Bräu? 🙂
My brother in the Catskills, NY loves Corona. I was going to buy some just for the humor…in a very dark kind of way…but others beat me to it! Yeah, I know…I am sick. 😜
There’s a brand of Tequila that has a worm (dead, but happy) at the bottom of the bottle
It’s said to go well with Corona and some lime juice (hence the shortcut on the next rack, Desperados)…
Then you could get him a Linda Rondstadt album with the song “Desperado” on it, for the full effect 😀
Mezcal Tequila brings back an early 80s memory of a pretty young blond name Tina and a drinking game called “quarters”. The game included a bottle of Mezcal (worm included), a shot glass, a table top, and a quarter.
Rules: Bounce the quarter off the table into the shot glass. If the quarter goes in the shot glass, the other person has a chance to get the quarter shot glass. Each time the quarter makes it into the shot glass…the penalty for missing the shot glass raises one shot.
I was very good at this game…so was she. We went back and forth 21 times without missing the glass. It was my turn…the pressure was on…THE WORM WAS STARING AT ME.
I missed the shot glass. 21 shots and I ate the worm. I got so sick…till this day I cannot stand the smell of tequila.
N. E. V. E. R. E. A. T. T. H. E. W. O. R. M.
You only make that mistake…ONCE.😜
Had a similar experience in Uni.
My roommate, “the fastest white on campus”, had won a GINORMOUS bottle of Southern Comfort (so huge that it had a spigot on the botton, and, placed on top of his desk/cabinet, reached almost to the ceiling… must have been almost a gallon.
We made a LOT of friends that year…
To this day I CANNOT STAND EITHER THE SIGHT OR TASTE OF SOUTHERN COMFORT.
Discomfort is more like it…
Though I’m told it’s pretty good stuff.
Then again, I heard the same about Boone’s Farm, Annie Green Springs, and Wild Turkey…..
Heyyy J.W: – that’s probably where they get the expression “the worm turned”
Another episode, this time with Tequila: back in Uni again (remember, SoCal is a legendary drinking school) (University of Southern Comfort, or U$C),
I had a “floormate” (dorm) who was a polio survior, or a tad spastic, which made him walk with a labored, disrhythmic gait. We all called him “machine”, in a teasing, albeit affectionate way, as he was a great guy, and bright as well; only hampered by his body.
As Uni life would have it, one night it came to Tequila shots. Lemon(or Lime), salted shot glass, and Jose Cuervo (or whatever).
The race was on.
A few hours and (as legend tells it), the winner had downed 21 shots.
Machine.
It’s said that he started walking with a normal, fluid motion around the 14th shot.
The student health center said he should have expired between that and the 21st shot.
But, thank GOD, he didn’t.
Not sure where he is now and what he’s doing. But he’s in the annals of USC’s Trojan Hall (of fame, as it were)…
That worm turned alright…flipped, jumped, spun, somersaulted…..the things a young body could put away and survive.
Oh no, not the Southern Comfort. It has many a moon!
Now whiskey on the other hand. I love a good scotch!
Johnnie Walker Swing…..swear!!!!!!!!
My son and I are getting together at the end of the week to sit down to Lavagulin 16. SMOKEY!
But first we start of with a large contrast from the Highlands—Dalwhinnie Single Malt 15 years of magic!
I am teaching my son the important things in life—like a good whisky is not just about how many shots you can throw down. A 12€ bottle of Johnnie Walker Red would suffice for such an occasion.
NO ICE! It deadens the taste buds! A proper whisky glass IS A MUST!
Good on ya! But if you do get a chance to try the Swing, it is a treat!
I toured the whisky trail in Scotland years ago. And there is a lot of peat in them there bottles!
We were the guests of a large landowner in the highlands one evening. EVERYONE drank out of highball glasses filled to the brim with scotch!!!
I figured out this is why they all have hair growing out of their ears!!!!!
😜
Just cooked my corned beef in a slow cooker in Guinness while I was out all day. Came home to wonderful aromas throughout the house.
Wow! Sounds good…
Adds a special to taco meat, if you’re so inclined.
Finely minced (ground) beef, a bottle or two of Guiness (or equivalent DARK beer), chopped onions, Serranos, and spices, simmer, and away ye go…
Though cans and bottles can’t match “on tap”…
Exponentially growing demand meets a constrained supply.
In technical mathematical terms: You’re screwed.
ROFLMAO! I knew you would come through! 🤣
Depends. Is it local resupply or multinational direct supply?
Seven letters: D.A.M.F.I.N.O.
H. A. ! !
PS When does the delayed demand represent itself?
It is said that work is the curse of the drinking classes 😎
Or is that “drinking glasses.”
LOL!
Drinking glasses? Is that any relation to beer goggles?
On the same shelf!!!! HAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
Top!
LOL what’s funny is my store had all the alcohol I needed but everything else was gone.
Something funny about liquor stores… they seem to be really organized.
I called mine the other day, explained that I wanted someone to come out to the car, prepaid the bill, stuck a tip outside the window, and voilà! Trunk door opened and closed..all over.
Wow!
JW , Michael h posted an image awhile back
Corona with Lyme.. looked good enough to drink
still chuckling .
some call it morbid, some sardonic
..heh, gotta be able to laugh right !?
Be of good cheer !
The human race has one really effective weapon…and that is laughter.—Mark Twain
I still swear by Readers’ Digest’. Very clever people wrote in to that small little magazine!
Now we have Wolf’s Digest!
You mean Wolf Blitzer? Is that digestible?
No!
great work, Steve, explaining this…what yr talking about (I think ?) is the epidemic curve …there is a growth rate to this virus…and then it peaks out eventually before it starts to curve back down again…what counties, towns, cities need to try to do is to control that curve…flatten it out…to contain the spread …and avoid the peak ?
here’s an article (March 2020) explaining that epidemic curve , along with a graphic…
link…
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/
Spot on.
Great post, Steve, well-written and understandable, especially on π day (all those π-in-the-sky equations 🙂 ). The flattening of the curve is something even the gubmint folks in Italy understood, albeit too late. Here in BDTD, they’ve clamped down on almost all assemblies, shut down the sports leagues, and my son has (at least) an extra month added to his semester break at his Uni. Again, here we’re late, as well…sigh…
There’s a new sub-site put up by the NEJM (New England Journal of Medicine) that may be useful (they seemed to lean a little left back when I subscribed to them). This one appears to be both free and helpful:
https://www.nejm.org/coronavirus
Honestly, my eyes glazed over a bit as I read the explanation…not because it is not important or because I disagree…but I am a humanities v. hard science person. Husband is opposite and son is a wonderful mix.
Point is, did I do the algebra? No. I looked at the column of cases by date as of Only 2 weeks ago and could see doubling, Very consistent Doubling.
Even I can then figure:
A x 2 = B
B x 2 = C
C x 2 = D…..and before I get very far down that line the numbers are BIG.
At anywhere in the list of reported, confirmed cases per day one can then look 2 days ahead and the #s are about doubled – sometimes slightly less, sometimes slightly more.
As GA/FL has pointed out, the numbers of cases are still being fed, in part, from traveling abroad v. all stateside community spread.
There will be a spike as more people are tested.
There will be a slow down as more countries are now part of the travel ban and more citizens are forced to stay home from traveling abroad.
Ground report of stupid: coworker of husband has good friend who just left for a short cruise on Thurs…what?!!! One infected person – whole ship is quarantined! nightmare. stupid, stupid stupid! Now POTUS is putting a stop to some of the stupid for all of our protection. sad that is necessary.
I mentioned elsewhere that I drove to another timezone recently (with some misgivings). It was a slog; I had limited time and had to resort to cat naps to keep going; I had no time for an overnight. I really would rather have flown but airfares were ridiculous AND I was being cautious about coronavirus even then.
The other day just for grins I looked up airfares for flights two days out–usually astronomical.
Everything was under $160. I’d take that flight, if it’s 95% empty.
Steve my engineer husband loved your article . You spoke his language 🙂
Thank him for the kind words, please!
Was with a 60+ friend today that was scheduled to fly next week to Romania for a few days and then go on a Viking riverboat trip. Cancelled, of course. But here’s the kicker…no fears of getting the virus but more concerned about getting stuck there by quarantine.
Ha! May be that the better bet would be to fly there and stay there! If they close their borders….
Nice work on the math and the explanations. I agree, except for one important, yeh unmentioned point, the math and the doom and gloom predictions ARE NOT following that math. The “projections” are way out of whack with what is ACTUALLY happening.
I submit tat that can only mean one thing, The numbers, ie the sample size in the domain, is flawed. Probably WAY too few. I propose, and I will either be proven very right, or very wrong, there is no in between.
Bear with me, we now know that coved 19 was raging and unchecked in China as far back as July 2019. We first had alarm bells sounded by the young Chinese doctor, whose name escapes me, and who later died from coved 19 . He was raising the alarm as far back as August 2019.
That means that the virus was raging in China as far back as AT LEAST that time frame. Bear in mind further, that Trump did not halt travel to and from China until JANUARY 2020, and that was not implemented until mid January 2020’ despite protests from the dems, the WHO, and UN.
Also, keep in mind that there were no such limits enacted ANYWHERE else, including Italy, South Korea, Iran, or other hot beds.
That means, that for at least 90 days, thanks to Chinese CCP hiding, lying, and secrecy, we, and the rest of the WORLD were secretly exposed to this new, virulent, unknown, virus, UNABATED..
We the did not even KNOW we had it coming in from China and the other hotbeds. We were almost all assuredly exposed, and had it transmitted WIDELY, yet we didn’t even notice until thanks to China and South Korea began openly acknowledging that they had a problem.
This was in late December of 2019.
That means my friends, for @90 days, and at LEAST 30-40 days we all were widely exposed all over this country, and no one knew it. It was TOTALLY UNABATED. There were people coming and going freely from all the hot beds of China, South Korea, Italy, and even Iran (students). That my friends means that this virus was literally everywhere, from colleges and schools, to big cities, to small towns, and no one knew it.
Now given the postulated gestation of 2 to 3 weeks, and even as much as a month, with little to no symptoms, but still contagious, I submit that we have ALREADY apexed. Why did we NOT have panic then? Because, this is the height of cold, flu, and allergy season, MOST people who got it, simply chocked it up to one of those things, which are COMMON, WIDESPREAD, NORMAL, and EXPECTED this time of year. Most probably already self quarantined, self medicated, or went to the doctor, andwed were misdiagnosed as the seasonal flu, or even a cold.
Why can I say this with confidence? Because according to both the CDC, WHO, and those interviewed, 80%, that is 8 out of every 10 cases have MILD to NO symptoms. Now factor in that this same virus seems to ONLY infect 1% of adolescents, and LESS than 1% of children younger than 10, and you start to see why I believe we almost all have certainly either had it or ALREADY been exposed.
The only people who seem dramatically affected are the 20% that are either elderly (above 70), or who have preexisting health issues that make them highly subseptable to respiratory illness. These are the people that would up in hospitals or have passed away. Factor in that with the fact that still over 50% of the deaths occurred in ONE critical care elderly facility in Washington state, and you start to see the reasons why the doom and gloom exponential hypothesis is NOT matching the real numbers on the ground.
Then you have to factor that not everyone is or WILL BE tested, further skewing the numbers. ONLY the symptomatic are being tested, and we know that up to 80% of infected NEVER have symptoms or they are so mild they are discounted as something else. You then have to see the problems with the exponential hypothesis.
This is not even factoring in the reliability of the testing, false negatives, OR false positives, which would further dilute the numbers.
The reason, imho, that we are not aligning are multiple. One ONLY the 20% who are symptomatic or need hospital care are being reported both HERE and the WORLD with the possible exceptions of Taiwan and Bahrain, which are mandatorily testing their entire populations. That means that here and in the world 80% are NOT being tested, OR reported, because they have little to no symptoms.
Two, the reliability’s of the tests, coupled with mis diagnosis by either people themselves or doctors that were not aware on coved 19, and compounded by the large percentage of a symptomatic people, AND the VERY low percentage of children affected , further skew the numbers.
Lastly, couple all that with the fact that no one seems to accurately know the true gestation period, or reliably when patient zero happened, which means we do NOT know when first exposures happened. Now you couple that with the secrecy, and negligence of China, and having open travel to and from hotspots for weeks if not MONTHS, and you start to see that the numbers we are being given, which are NOT adding up, shows that there is a DEFINATE problem with the model.
The very fact that no one seems to report, recognize, or even consider that possibility is troubling to say the least.
Notice we are ONLY being given the absolute worst case scenarios, and then you see why my spider senses are in overdrive.
Several actions by the cabal, and their sycophant msm, only further my suspicions. One, the abject politicization of the issue by the dems and msm, never let a crisis go to waste. Two the 24/7 hysteria being pumped out by the majority of the msm, so much so that the public was scared into a run on Hanna sanitizer and toilet paper, even though diarrhea is NOT one of the symptoms of coved 19.
Couple that with the blame games, mixed messages of gloom by a bevy of “health officials” and the MASSIVE attacks on the stock market (short sells) and the overreactions of closing major sports, you start to see a pattern,.
Then you realize it is an election year, and the opposition coordinating and fostering the hysteria to panic the people, are the same party that is openly running a candidate in the early to mid stages of dementia, after having DISASTROUS failures in a shampeachment, primary in Iowa, and a mosh pit of a debate, not to mention obvious collusion against candidate Sanders AGAIN, and you start to see an agenda to induce as much panic and fear in the public to tank a roaring economy, lay blame on a President for something that is literally uncontrollable, AND take the focus off their own electoral processes and candidates.
Then came the icing that cemented my suspicions. In rapid succession, the dems opposed Trump’s very reasonable ban of travel to and from the new hotbed of virus activity Europe, even trying to get an injunction. Then, and remember this is a level 10 crisis according to them, they were at first opposing Trump’s measures, attacking them, and were going to go on recess (vacation) having done NOTHING, until McConnell called them out and stopped the Senate recess. Nancy had to then come back, and pass something.
Was it serious? Apparently not, as the dems felt the need to load up the bill with all sorts of unrelated and unnecessary pork like funding for abortion and food stamps. When Trump and the REPS called them on it, they had to backtrack, and cobble something together in the dead of night to pass, they had NO sense of urgency, other than to get to their vacations. Tells one ALL one needs to know.
For all these reasons, the fuzzy and skewed projections using at best a skewed sample size of those 20% who were affected seriously enough to be tested, die, or be hospitalized, while NOT taking into account the 80% who are not tested due to no or mild symptoms, the NOT factoring of not knowing, when, where, and how many were infected before we shut off the travel, and who the infected interacted with,where, and when, let alone how many. Then coupled with the obvious hysteria pumping, plus coordinated attacks on the economy, and you start to see a very clear picture, an AN AGENDA, and it has nothing to do with protecting we the people.
We simply have NO way of knowing when, where, and how many people have been infected, and have already spread it and recovered. I submit it may be tens of thousands if not millions, and we are already past the apex, and that is why the projections are not jibing. Is it over. No, but I think it was FAR less severe than we are being led to believe, and no where near the hysteria and panic we are enduring.
Time will tell, one thing I know, if I am wrong, it will prove out in the next month, and I will admit I am and was wrong. But, if I am right, I submit that people will NOT be very happy or go gentle into the good night when they learn that they were scammed in the biggest, most serious hoax of all time, NOT the virus, that is very real, but the hysteria is nearly 100% created. If I am right, will the hoaxers that sent this country into a panic apologize? Will they be held to account for the damage they caused?
This, if I am right, will have far reaching consequences. Think of the boy that cried wolf, and what happened to him. What happens IF this event is proven overblown? The next time, we may face a REAL killer pandemic, one where instead of 20% having severe symptoms, 80% do, but people WON’T believe it, because of the hysteria THIS time, THAT is the inherent danger in pumping undo hysteria based on projection with FAR too many unknown variables to be remotely accurate. If these projections were right, then China would have MILLIONS of cases, not 80000. Think of the conditions, living arrangements, poor healthcare, squalor, sanitation, etc, and they by all accounts are nearly done, South Korea as well, though they are light rears ahead of China, they still have a dense population, many in less than ideal conditions.
I still also find it VERY strange that places in Africa, Mexico, Latin and South America have reported LESS THAN 10 cases, if true, then warm wet weather must wreck havoc on this particular virus, like most others, and by mid April, the bulk of cases will decline rapidly here as well.
There are too many “odd” things about this virus, too many unknowns, or un reported, and FAR too much hysteria. I will get ripped for this, but there is no way this virus was from nature’s kitchen. I am with wolf on that, which means that this virus was man made, and it was man introduced, and therefore it is also man hyped.
I hope all are well, and this is not to dismiss the virus, or it’s potential to kill, it is meant to promote critical thinking of the doom and gloom hype surrounding it. Remember the same people promoting the hype are the same people that produced the Russia hoax and say that we are all dead from climate change in less than 12 years. Were it found that this virus, and others like it die in warm wet conditions, I wonder what the climate change people will say then, that would tell you ALL you need to know. Remember this STILL is not about the health and safety of the American people to the cabal, it is simply a means to an ends to them, and their actions proved it.
^^^THIS!^^^
According to this article, Dr. Li Wenliang didn’t recognize the new SARS-like disease until 30 Dec 2019.
* https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8099653/Doctor-text-prompted-whistle-blower-Li-Wenliang-sound-coronavirus-alarm-speaks-out.html
Dr. Ai Fen, the Wuhan doctor whose text prompted whistle-blower Li Wenliang to sound the coronavirus alarm ‘received extremely harsh punishment for sharing information about SARS-like disease’
Dr Ai Fen was the first doctor to alert other colleagues about a SARS-like disease. Her text led her co-worker Dr Li Wenliang to raise the concerns on social media.
A doctor whose text message prompted her colleagues including whistle-blower Li Wenliang to raise the coronavirus alarm has spoken out about receiving ‘extremely harsh reprimand’ by her hospital for her behaviour.
Ai Fen, whose text prompted whistle-blower Li Wenliang to sound the coronavirus alarm says her hospital punished her for sharing information on SARS-like disease last year
Ai Fen, whose text prompted whistle-blower Li Wenliang to sound the coronavirus alarm says her hospital punished her for sharing information on SARS-like disease last year
On 30 December, Dr Ai received a patient’s report labelled as ‘SARS coronavirus’. She said she broke out into a cold sweat after reading the lab results several times.
The medic then circled the word ‘SARS’ and sent a picture of the report to one of her former classmates and a group chat within her department.
Dr Ai said she also immediately alerted the hospital authorities about the case.
‘Later that evening, the stuff was shared all over the place with screenshots of the report bearing my red circle. [These platforms] included the chatting group, which Li Wenliang shared the information with,’ Dr Ai told the magazine, ‘I thought something bad is going to happen.’
Bravo
Sorry but at least this part of your logic is flawed.
I actually showed that you don’t need to know who all is actually infected; you can track either hospitalizations (assuming the criteria for such is constant), diagnoses, or deaths. You’ll get an exponential curve for each with the same doubling time so long as the proportions are constant (i.e, the same percentage of people who have it get diagnosed with it over time, a different (but constant) percentage of people who have it go to hospital, and so on.
I’ve been looking at Maga Mom’s numbers, and frankly, she’s showing exponential growth.
Now I *do* agree there are people pumping this for hysteria, but that’s a totally different topic.
FLAWED sample size by not knowing when we wer first infected, how many, where, and where they went= GIGO. Flawed sample = FLAWED result, sorry, what you are speculating, using a variable n, is a GUESS, no matter which way the math points it. it is simply NOT doubling in deaths OR cases every 2 days, it did not in China, South Korea, or even Italy, as the doomsday model is predicting.
Akum’s razor, the simplest answer, all things being equal, is the correct one. In this case, the SIMPLEST answer is we were ALL exposed MUCH earlier, the vast majority of the cases, being mild to NO symptoms, were ignored by the people as colds or flu, or misdiagnosed by doctors who did not know wat they were seeing, and CALLED it the flu.
As I said time WILL tell, one thing is sure, it appears China, South Korea, and Hong Kong, have indeed APEXED, and they were known infected since JULY 2019.
My bet, is of the 22 MILLION cases of the flu here MANY were misdiagnosed, and were in FACT covid 19. This too, does NOT even consider flawed test results, false negatives OR false positives.
The math you, MM, and the CDC are usis is based on WORST case because you do NOT have a true accurate sample size.
Just like anything else, the SMALLER the sample size, the GREATER the margin for ERROR. See the climate change hoax by East Anglican University based upon a sample size of T H R E E trees in Siberia, not 300, not 3000, not 3000000, 3!
We will agree to vehemently disagree, exponential hypotheses are almost ALWAYS proven incorrect when ACTUAL numbers are interred. What you and others are doing is extrapolating an UNKNOWN to the nth degree based upon a SMALL number, even when you consider 150000 plus infections world wide…in a population of nearly 7000000000.
Notice too that the numbers of those that have ALREADY recovered of the estimated 1500000 cases EXCEED 50% of the total. Then, SOON if I am right, the numbers of new infected, let alone deaths will be overtaken by the numbers of those that have RECOVERED.
Statistics, ALL STATISTICS, while based on math, are limited to the KNOWN variables, when you change the element in the sample, you CHANGE the result. when you GUESS the number in the sample, and try to extrapolate, you are BEGGING for error.
You say my logic is flawed, based upon the numbers of hospitalizations, infections, or deaths, so long as constants and proportions are CONSTANT, I have logically stated that the proportions are UNKNOWN, because we do not know how many, WHEN, and WHERE were infected since at LEAST October 2019.
Chew on this flawed logic, IF I am right, and I admit I may be wrong, but IF I am right, 10s of THOUSANDS, perhaps even 100s of thousands or even MILLIONS of people HERE AND world wide, have ALREADY been exposed, and since the know recovery rate is @ 3 weeks, RECOVERED. MANY (80% by the CDC and WHO factsheet) had symptoms SO mild, or had NONE that the unknowingly, and unwittingly SPREAD the virus FAR and wide, and then use THAT exponential math…the odds are the majority of Americans have either HAD it, and did not know it, and SPREAD it further, OR had it, self treated as something like a common cold or flu, that FEW people in this day and age are AFRAID of.
These people then either had mild cases, OR recovered in the 3 week timeframe, and moved on, NEVER knowing they had it.
What ALL this hysteria NOW is based up are SMALL sample sizes, like cruise ship passengers, airline flights, and a VERY suspicious outlier, where FIFTY percent of the deaths in the US came from, the life care facility in Washington state. ONE outlier, take THAT number out of the exponential equation, what does THAT do to the projection?
See, that is why, unless we have a MUCH bigger sample size, those exponential hypothesis are…well…GARBAGE, despite the fancy equations, and sound math.
What I am doing, quite simply, is stating the CONSTANT in your equation is FLAWED due to sample size. We actually do not, yet, even know the TRUE gestation period, the TRUE recovery period, the TRUE infectious period of the infected. Couple that with an UNKNOWN number of TRULY infected, let alone RECOVERED, and you see my skepticism.
The TRUE numbers of this will not be known till it is ALL over. But spreading FEAR based upon projections, and exponential, is well, irresponsible.
I am NOT calling you or anyone else here irresponsible, you are simply defending the math, I GET that. But, my friends, my old Stats and probability teacher used to have an old acronym….RAWW, Right Answer Wrong Work. In this case, it is WAWW. Wrong Answer Wrong Work. math is ONLY as good as the numbers ENTERED. IF the numbers are INCOMPLETE, the math, no matter how sound, will give a WRONG projection. Change but ONE flawed variable, and you COMPLETELY change the RESULT.
I do not blame you guys, FAR too many have bought into the fear, and we ALL should be CAUTIOUS and VIGELANT, BUT, the projections, like MANY others parroted by the MSM over the decades, based upon “science” and “math” are NOT adding up to the ACTUAL FACTS.
Taking ANYTHING to the nth WORST case, and spewing it as “inevitable” as the MSM, and various health “officials”, with out even CONSIDERING alternative scenarios, let alone sharing THOSE projections, as I said, shows an AGENDA. That agenda has NOTHING to do with “protecting” the American public, as the WORST thing to do in a crisis is foment FEAR, and THAT is EXACTLY what the MSM, and various “health officials” are doing.
I never told anyone here this, but I will say it now, I worked for 35 years at a MAJOR research University, WITH multiple hospitals and level one Trauma centers. I have spoken to MANY people there, and while cautious, they are in NO WAY in panic at those facilities.
I also spoke to some acquaintances in the research field, they said, UNEQUIVIACALLY that they would NEVER release a study on even toothpaste, with INCOMPLETE data, that that was a recipe for DISASTER, Bankruptcy, lawsuits, and unemployment.
These same people stated, with utmost confidence, that the numbers being shown, projected, and speculated, would most likely be revised DOWN once the TRUE scope of the disease was known, and unfortunately, we will not know that until the case studies are completed, and that that could take YEARS.
Take from that what you will, I vehemently disagree with the projections, I hope I am right. If I am wrong, we all may be in real trouble.
One last thing, notice if you will the SMALL instances in the equator countries, where it is warm and wet, April, and the dawning of spring may save us in the end. How fitting at Easter, the time of rebirth!
Ahem, while this is only Dr Oz….it makes my point PERFECTLY… from Fox and Friends this morning
“Dr. Oz: Now that he got tested without any symptoms why wouldn’t the average say, “Hey, just test me too!”… We don’t have enough units. We can’t get people tested who probably should be tested… If I had enough tests I would test every single American right now. You know why? Because it would give us epidemiologic data about what’s really happening. I am positive that I know people who were infected but didn’t realize it because it happened before coronavirus is here. There is someone I know who was actually at a party at the Oscars with the cast members of “Parasite” a Korean movie who got fevers, shortness of breath, fatigue. I have no idea if he had coronavirus or not. But he thinks he did. Now you hear these stories and you are like this has been around. A lot of people had this and didn’t realize it. 80% of people had very subtle symptoms. They had a fever most of the time but nothing that would catch your eye. And so we don’t actually know how long it’s been out there. ”
THAT is why the exponential hypothesis is FLAWED, we do NOT know the TRUE number of infected, MANY thousands have ALREADY spread it, and RECOVERED.
Let’s see if there’s any common ground here.
Does Dr. Fauci make sense to you? Because as near as I can tell, he’s saying what I’m trying to say.
I laid out the math as an exercise to explain why it is critical to flatten the curve (whatever it may be); and it seems to me that’s what he is saying, at least any time I’ve listened to him.
As for the testing, I’ve suspected for a few days now that a different strain of coronavirus circulated a few months ago; I wonder if the tests can distinguish them?
If you’re right and it is the “real” coronavirus that has been circulating for months, something has caused it to suddenly show virulence within the last two or three months.
My concern is making sure the early stage of whatever curve we are on doesn’t overwhelm our hospital system. Which it will likely do given no precautions
The good news is, we’re taking the precautions, now, finally. I’m not counselling panic, I am counselling taking this very, very seriously.
OK. here is where we agree, the precautions now should slow if not stop the virus coupled with the warm weather.
I do not however agree with Fauchi, I think he and Rosenstein’s sister are a MAJOR reason for the panic caused.
KI submit that there are MULTIPLE strains of covid 19, and they all go back to the China progenitor. I also submit that the reason that everything seems more virulent NOW than it did when it actually started SEVERAL months ago, is that early cases were in fact mistaken for something else because 8 out of 10 people infected have mild to NO symptoms, many thousands of people, maybe hundreds of thousands.
Because of the mild symptoms, most people self medicated, or went to the doctor and it was misdiagnosed as a version of the seasonal flu. Those that had underlying health issues or were elderly, I speculate were ALREADY treated in the hospital, OR unfortunately died, and they were chalked up to the REGULAR flu. That is why we did not have a massive run of covid 19 on the hospitals, because it was mislabeled as REGULAR flu. Remember if I am right, this all happened MANY months ago, up to 3 to 4, and 2 things “saved” us. One the 2 of 10 serious infection rate, and the VERY low child infection rate. The system simply caught up with the original wave(s) and it was mis added to the totals of REGULAR flu, which has infected somewhere near 60 million Americans, and hospitalized over 220000 with sever cases, 22000, or 1% have sadly passed away, I speculate MANY, but not ALL of those were in fact covid 19.
Remember we were BARELY aware of this, even healt professionals, the CDC, and the WHO when the first waves hit.
The reason it NOW seems more virulent, and deadly are again two fold. One the entire world is now acutely aware of covid 19, and there is NOW testing available, when this started MONTHS ago, there was NO test. Ergo, then, we now are more aware of just what to look for, and test for, so the instances are of course much higher, as are the attributed hospitalizations and deaths.
Follow me here, the media got a hold of this, and are minute by minute posting numbers (spreading FEAR). They could have cared LESS while this was first raging in China, South Korea, and likely Italy and Iran, as well as elsewhere, they were all too fixated on IMPEACHMENT to care for a pandemic. Who cared about a virulent virus in China, infecting and killing thousands, they had a President to try and take out…see where my problem lies with them? There were NOT there or gave two rips when this FIRST started, if they had bothered to care then, and did their due diligence THEN, the initial outbreak could have been MORE contained, if not ISOLATED in China, at least then we could have slowed the spread here even MORE. But, trying to take down a President was MORE important. Now it is ALL they can talk about, and in my book it is WAY too late, the damage here has ALREADY been done, the only thing they have now is HYSTERIA, to try and do what impeachment could NOT, take out a President.
Ask your self if they should be politicizing EVERYTHING now and blaming EVERYTHING on Trump, spreading hysteria and FEAR mongering 24/7, downplaying EVERY action this govt has done to try and slow, stop, or fight the virus, OR, should they be trying to STEM fears, SPREAD FACTS, not projections which induce PANIC, REAL numbers.
Are they not in this with us? Are we ALL not on the same team? Should the GOAL be prevention, information, and RECOVERY? Or should it be blame, hype, hysteria and 24/7 breathless open rooting against the govt that is doing EVERYTHING humanly possible to HELP EVERYONE? Dirty Laundry..BAD news SELLS, I suggest EVERYONE listen to the Don Henley song and compare and contrast.
I think you know that answer, as does EVERYONE. Now knowing that the MSM. Dems and Cabal have said agenda, I want to present to you part 2 of WHY the virus seems more virulent NOW than it did before.
The msm, and even the CDC and WHO, who did not give TWO RIPS about covid 19 until JANUARY 2020, are highlighting EVERY case, but ESPECIALLY those who came from CRUISE SHIPS overseas, and the Washington State Lifecare center. WHY? Because those were SMALL, CLOSED environments, with HIGH infection rates and in the case of the life care center HIGH mortality rates. SMALL closed samples, in jam packed environments, 5000 people in a ISOLATION on a 1000 foot long 15 story floating building, of COURSE those numbers were going to be MUCH higher, as was an CCU elderly facility of 120 of the MOST at risk patients, jammed in a SINGLE less than 25000 SQFT facility with COMMON shared resources…just like the cruise ships. MAXIMUM exposure, MAXIMUM infected, MAXIMUM mortality, and MAXIMUM hype for the fire.
If this was SO severe, how come they did NOT test the employees at the Washington State facility until LAST week, finding FIFTY were infected, AFTER 30 or more had died, and 1/2 of the remaining patients had MOVED. Please do not say the tests were unavailable till then, this was THE most high profile case study, they would have been, or SHOULD have been the EPICENTER, the CDC should have descended on that place like LOCUSTS, yet they did NOT, WHY? NOT negligence, unless you count WILLFUL negligence. To further my examples of the cruise ship closed environment, do you remember the NORO virus that PLAGUED the cruise industry for a DECADE? Exhibit A why that sample was chosen. MAXIMUM numbers from SMALL samples, MAXIMUM “potential”, extrapolating THOSE numbers gives you the WORST case. When in reality they are the ANOMOLY, the OUTLIER, NOT the norm.
Now some will say what about Italy? What about Iran. I have answers for THAT too. In Italy, there is a MASSIVE tourism industry, it is nearly all they have. Couple that with a HUGE population of Chinese that come and go nearly DAILY, and a LARGE amount of ELDERLY, nearly 50 % of the Italian population, and you do the math. Lastly, it is COMMON in places like that, ESPECIALLY the elderly, to kiss each other openly on the cheek or lips, EVEN strangers….guess what that does to a virus, spreads like WILDFIRE, and it DID. Are the young in Italy being affected, NO, only the MOST vulnerable, the elderly of which there is a LAGE population, of course it would overwhelm their system.
On Iran, sure did put an end to all the protests against the mullahs didn’t it, likewise in Hong Kong, but that may be a bridge too far for some, for NOW.
You could not pick more PERFECT samples to hype, spread the FEAR. and use to further the agenda than those if you had SCRIPTED it. my friend is why the exponential hypotheses will NOT fly with me, too many unknow variables, too FEW cases tested, and WAY over skewed sample sizes used as the MEAN.
I too urge vigilance and CAUTION, but NOT panic, and THAT my friend is where we are. When one cannot go to the store and buy toilet paper, eggs, hand sanitizer, or bleach, when people are increasingly angry, confused, mis informed, and ISOLATED, with few options for free exercises (canceling sports, closing stores, schools, limiting movie theaters seating, limiting store hours, and hoarding of supplies, that is a DIRECT result of the hysteria, and it is damn near to jumping the shark. Caution is advised and WELCOMED, panic is NOT. We need FACTS to stem this, NOT speculation and predictions of doom. The numbers are NOT adding up, I submit, there is GOOD reason for that.
THIS X 1000!!!
THANK YOU, PRex!!
Some might also say this is groundwork for controlling populations worldwide and how various countries react …
Church, IF they succeed in doing this just ONCE, we will see it over and over again. I call it the sky is falling narrative or the boy that cried wolf. As we know, it did NOT end well for the boy, as eventually the woodsman (We the people) IGNORED the boy’s cries (the MSM) and the wolf (Trump?) came and ATE the boy.
My GREATEST fear is that this will, as I predict, turn out to be NOWHERE near as bad as the MSM and Cabal are hyping it to be, and then, sometime in the future, after a man like Trump, we WILL get hit by a REAL killer, and the people, using the old axiom fool me once, will IGNORE it, and they we will have a TRUE, and not manufactured crisis.
There was simply Z E R O reasons to jump the shark like we are and continue to do so, calm, common sense, and CAUTION would have worked, probably even BETTER.
Instead we have a 100% MSM induced spate of market fluctuations, panic buying, hoarding, price gouging, and unnecessary closures.
IF I am right, we have all been exposed to this for weeks if not MONTHS. The facts that they CONTINUE to skew the numbers, and HYPE the panic, over the one facility, in WA state, was red flag #1 for me.
Then, they NEVER talk about the % of ALREADY RECOVERED, red flag #2. Red flag #3, is they ALWAYS talk about the WORST possible case “exponential” projections, or the “curve”. They NEVER take into account EARLIER first introduction, the preventative measures ALREADY taken, and the basic differences between a country like the US and the other hotbeds like China, Italy, and Iran.
Lets highlight those, just a few. What is the BASIC quality and condition differences between here and the other spots? do we ham JAM packed population centers with little sanitary or BASIC hygene? NO, although some areas in some of the dem controlled cities are getting there, they are sill like the starship enterprise vs the minnow from Gilligan’s island in terms of conditions, facilities, infrastructure, etc. Think ZERO sewers as a START, then think communal water supplies, UNTREATED, used for more than just drinking.
Then, lets talk healthcare. Try as they might, the left have STILL not been able to destroy the American healthcare system, the BEST in the world. Even places like South Korea, and Taiwan, despite what the MSM will tell you, cannot TOUCH our facilities, personnel, or levels of care. Want PROOF? Do the South Koreans, Chinese, and Iranians keep their students in house in their countries? NO, why do you think that is, if they were so advanced and good and better than us? No, my friend they send their BEST and BRIGHTEST right here in the good old USA. Our ONLY failing here, thanks to dems like Clinton and Obama, is outsourcing our medical equipment, supplies, and pharmaceutical production to China, and THAT, is about to change, change big, and change QUICKLY.
Then lets look at response and government actions. The Chinese, and the South Koreans, as well as the Italians, did not ACT until there was ALREADY a serious condition, they ALLOWED the virus to spread like wildfire BEFORE taking drastic action.
In the US, despite the impeachment distraction, despite MSM and dem protestation of “racism”, and despite dem obfuscation, indifference, and interference, Trump took bold decisive action in stopping ALL travel to China in January, once the world found out the lie China had been spewing.
I submit we were all aready exposed at that time, but, Trump’s actions stemmed NEW influxes, maybe new mutated strains, from entering, and that gave us VALUABLE time to get ahead, and we, I believe are WAY ahead, despite the hype.
ALL these things and MORE, like the fact that Italy and China have some of the OLDEST populations in the WORLD, and this virus is VASTLY disproportionate in its effects on the elderly, a STRANGE curiosity. This virus basically discriminants AGAINST the young, and hones in on the elderly, red flag #4. Normally it is the very old, and the VERY young that are affected by viruses, NOT in this case. The instances of INFECTION, not mortality, are 1% or less in teens through infant, a BIG outlier from norm.
So, in closing, thanks for the reply, I am trying to EASE the fears with calm, reasoned FACTS, not projections. INHO, we jumped the shark on the closings and cancelations, BIGLY. We should have STARTED, if we were going that route, to have the elderly and infirm curtail their exposures, not the young and middle aged, of which 80% show little or NO symptoms. there was simply NO reason to go full “outbreak” level panic here, yet.
The hype leads to disinfo. The disinfo leads to fear, the fear leads to PANIC, hoarding, and panic buying. The panic COULD lead to civil discord, looting, and worse. It was STUPID, and not on Trump’s end, on the people that supposedly work for him like RR’s sister, and some of the other health “officials” He rightly, finally, got CONTROL of the message, at least at the federal level thanks to the task force. Now it is local and state health “officials” like the twit in Ohio, spreading hysteria by GUESSTIMATING. WTF. she SHOULD, rightly, be fired, and SHOULD lose her medical license.
the FIRST rule of a crisis situation is to REMAIN CALM, and NOT panic. In an active shooter situation, usually, those that keep their cool, SURVIVE, those that PANIC, sadly, die.
Calm, and reasoned allows people to THINK, and not react, or OVERREACT. Hopefully, in a few days if not weeks, we WILL turn the corner, I think it will be shorter rather than longer.
One last thing. The MSM hype, AGAIN they ALWAYS over reach. They CANNOT continue the stoking to defcon 5 of 24/7 hysteria, breathlessly reporting NOTHING but covid 19. People are ALREADY saturated with it, they are growing TIRED of it, especially with no sports, and little movies to go see. Soon, they will simply TURN IT OFF. Do you know what happens then? I will bet my gopher suit that this “crisis” will suddenly, miraculously, END. If you cut off either the oxygen or the source of a fire it DIES.
By golly, that’s a potent comment.
Have you posted the same on your blog?
Either way, may I borrow it for mine with full credit to you? It’s worth an actual blog post for posterity.
I fully agree with you. In fact, I just finished a lengthy conversation with a friend on this very topic. Then I read your comment. All three of us are on the same page here.
feel free, I WANT people to NOT panic (what the Cabal want) this is getting ridiculous, when they start closing restaurants and bars, the next thin is a curfew. There simply is NO need for this, at leat not at this time. This is their dry run, after Trump something like this will be MUCH worse. We the people need to get and STAY informed, and start MAJOR pushback on the insanity. Caution is one thing, sequestration is QUITE another. Remember we have LESS than 70 deaths, and 30 of those were in ONE spot, not one state, not one city, one BUILDING.
This is akin to shutting down the country of Legionaries disease…think on that.
Again, feel free to post ANY of my comments here, or my blog, just link me as proper credit…you know the deal. I would suggest sharing mine and Steve in CO’s running thread, it is quite informative if I do say so myself! Thanks, Prex
Thank you very much, Prex — I greatly appreciate it.
Yes, you will get full credit. Will link to SteveInCO’s post.
I’ll schedule it for Wed. evening GMT, late afternoon (probably) for you.
appreciate it. I would suggest takin in a post by Jim Hoft on the Gateway Pundit, he is BASICALLY, proving my point. It is about the MSM openly LYING to us all about the ACTUAL death rate of covid 19 vs the seasonal flu. He has an interesting take that dovetales with my theory. Basically, the REAL numbers of flu deaths here NOW are 10 % of the REAL documented cases. 22000 of 220000 documented cases. For Covid 19 it is 3.4 % for the REAL documented cases, including the OUTLIER of the one facility.
The reason the CDC can state that the Flu mortality rate is .1% is that they are ESTIMATING that there are 36 million infected here in the US with the flu, and THEN extrapolating the REAL deaths out of THAT number 22000 of 36000000. That my friends is what we call GIGO.
Why this is IMPORTANT. IF they can estimate the flu numbers, because they KNOW the spread, they KNOW the gestation, why can’t they do the SAME with covid 19.
They have NEARLY the same sample size WW 178000 vs 222000 for the FLU here. They KNOW the mortality rate WW is 3.8%, 5786 of 178000. So why didn’t they ESTIMATE the numbers of infected and compare and extrapolate like they did the flu? Answer. because it would show that covid 19 is NOT more virulent than the common flu, and there are a LOT more cases than we are being told (#’s of infected withheld?) They KNOW the #’s from China, to the size of the city to the reported dates (gestation), and they KNOW the amount decesased AND infected. If you do not trust China, how about South Korea? They have ACCURATE info, and it is MUCH less than reported.
In short my friend, we are being BAIT AND SWITCHED on the numbers to create PANIC.
EX a: estimated # of flu infected vs ACTUAL mortality to get .1% mortality
Ex b: Actual #of known infected vs ACTUAL mortality to get 3.4- 3.8%.
These two are NOT like comparisons, not even CLOSE, and it is IMPORTANT to see that they are using actuals vs ESTIMATED to get the higher numbers. IE comparing apples to apples in covid 19, and apples to ORANGES in the flu.
The question is WHY can they not extrapolate the numbers in covid 19 like they do with the flu?
Answer, they do not want a panic over the flu, it is something people are USED to, has been around, and therefore even with the TRUE number, would not panic.
Covid 19 is NEW, and “unknown” and can be used to spread the panic desired. when one factors in the avg age of infections, serious infections for BOTH, and the factors in that 8 of 10 in covid show mild to NO symptoms, you start to REALLY see the agenda.
We are being MANIPULATED folks.
FULLY AGREE!
Thank you very much. I’ll post this, too.
A friend of mine ran numbers on this very thing at the weekend and came up with the same mortality percentages, albeit for the UK.
We are being manipulated, and leftist mayors and Governors are doing what they ALWAYS do, overreach. They are closing restaurants and bars, and now daycares..WHY? children are basically NOT affected. Answer because this is a TEST, a TEST of just what they can get away with before we the people say ENOUGH.
Time for some lawsuits, testing the Constitutionality of this. Then, the states and cities would have to PROVE actual danger, NOT projections. I hope you see now why I so vehemently went against the exponential projections, I KNEW they would be used against us for an AGENDA, damned if I wasn’t right.
The left will CONTINUE to infringe, and spread panic, till something pops, it will not take long, I give it 3 weeks TOPS. Hopefully, there will be enough SANE people, and Trump, to put a STOP to this through pushback. Plus, I believe they CANNOT keep up the hoax, and yes folks, it is a HOAX because of it’s PURPOSE, for much longer, they will NOT be able to fool the people much longer and fuel the hysteria. People will soon see, that they nor NO ONE they know is infected, and THEN the pushback starts.
The virus is real, but it is being made into the Spanish flu, and it is NO WHERE near that. May God have mercy on us all if a REAL killer comes a calling after this FIASCO by the MSM.
I IMPLORE President Trump, please for the love of the country, RESEND the Obama EO that permits propaganda to be spewed. FORCE these people to report the TRUTH and NOTHING but the truth, and that includes lying by omission.
Many people are just now coming to where I have been for over 2 weeks, pissed off, and it will get MUCH worse if they do not quit openly LYING and spreading hysteria, let alone infringement of life, LIBRETY, and the pursuit of happiness. All in the name of a crisis, and “public health” My considerable rear end. the numbers do NOT bear out the reaction.
EX A. 69 deaths of 330000000 =.000000020990 %
EX B 3300 cases of 3300000000= .00001%
Now tell me again why we are in lockdown and PANIC?
Projections and exponential projections coupled with HYPE. nothing more. These are FACTS, not projections.
THANK YOU!!!
I just now saw your comment (10:30 p.m. GMT). Earlier, my far better half and I had a discussion on this after dinner. We arrived at the same conclusions!
I am EQUALLY DISAPPOINTED WITH BORIS and thought he would have done BETTER THAN THIS.
I do hope you are right about the three weeks, because when I went to the local newsagent’s this afternoon I could see the desperation in the man’s eyes. That shop is the lifeblood of the community and have been open for nearly 50 years. They manage the local newspaper deliveries, parcel pickups and have a great selection of international newspapers, greeting cards, stationery, sweets and toys for the kiddos. If they went out of business, a big part of our community would die (figuratively) along with it.
I will be praying heartily that Boris’s decision today to ‘avoid’ restaurants, pubs and theatres is rescinded. We in the UK will be receiving daily updates from him or from the health minister.
My goodness, this news came out only later this afternoon. I am quite cross, to put it politely. I hope that good Englishmen and women do not take this supinely.
Take care and have faith in God. He will work through people on earth to END this, have no doubt. Easter is in less than 3 weeks…imagine that…the time of rising from the dead…
Yes, indeed.
Thank you, friend, for upholding the faith of our fathers.
Personally, I’m not worried about my own mortality. Obviously, I would not want to leave this world with my far better half alone. Nor would I want the reverse. If we both caught this and departed soon thereafter, that would be fine.
However, everything is in the Almighty’s hands. Whatever happens to us and to our loved ones, He will give us the means to cope with it.
On a larger scale, I do wonder about Christians who are afraid of dying from coronavirus, especially after saying repeatedly how great the afterlife will be. Not referring to anyone here, by the way, just — in general — online and offline.
If we are believers, we must practice what we preach.
My concern is with our temporal rulers. I truly hope you are right about the three weeks, which would be most perfectly timed with Easter, the greatest day in the Church year.
Thank you again for all your excellent comments. I’ve scheduled my post for Wednesday evening my time. It’s done and dusted now.
IChurch, I did some quick and dirty research that you can add to the pile. I am not only right, I’m scary right. Ready?
These numbers are from an article in Time, so NOT right wing. They are from 2015, and that means the numbers only were HIGHER I want EVERYONE to take this into account The next time the msm spread panic, these people should be more than ashamed, they should be prosecuted. Here goes, now remember, 2015, and I am using a bare minimum for the number of persons per flight.
In 2015, there were 2038 flights by the main four carriers from China TO the us per WEEK. During that same time there were 1853 US flights from US carriers per WEEK. That is a total of 3881 flights PER WEEK from China to the US.
That number extrapolates to 15524 PER MONTH total flights China to us.
Let’s assume that each flight had only 50 people ( in reality, it was more like. 100 to 150). That is a total of 776200 people coming from China PER MONTH at least, if only 10% of those people were infected, that means 77620 carriers were spread all throughout this country in a SINGLE MONTH.
Now knowing that China was raging in at LEAST September and October of 2019, and Trump didn’t suspend travel until mid December 2019, that means we had at LEAST 2 to 2 and 1/2 months of infected people coming and going, and that is just from China, that does not include Italy or Iran, or South Korea. If it is even 1/5 of my projections, that is STILL 38810 (194050*.2). (194050 came from (77620*2.5 months)
That is a LOW guesstimate of infected here in the US from China ONLY, in October 2019 to mid December 2019. There were here, most (8 of 10 ) with little to no symptoms, but STILL contagious and moving FREELY all throughout MAJOR airports in MAJOR cities with MAJOR populations.
You do not need fancy exponential hypothesis to tell you that those people infected MANY thousands to tens of thousands more, and so on. That is NOT a exponential estimate, that is plain old basic math and common sense.
We are ALL already exposed, TENS OF THOUSANDS IF NOT hundreds of THOUSANDS perhaps even MILLIONS.
Most (8 out of 10) had too mild a case, chalked it up to a cold, the regular flu, or allergies, never knew they had it, and recovered, but not before passing it on to those around them.
The CDC would have you believe that the first case of corona just happened a week ago, if I’m right we’ve already Apexed their predictions and their numbers were not right, ESPECIALLY the deaths, and hospitalizations, but they’re never going to backtrack on their numbers, that would not induce the fear necessary.
What would happen if, after all this hysteria, and draconian measures, people found out they ALREADY had what they were being scared to death of? There would (WILL BE) hell to pay.
I submit again that my theory is why the numbers are not adding up. China nor South Korea had ANYWHERE near the numbers of deaths, infected, or doom and gloom that are being projected here, one must ask WHY?
I think you know my and THE answer
Thank you for that.
I might put that in another post, because I can see people thinking, ‘Thank goodness we’re now on lockdown!’
But, I take your point that this was going on months ago before it became official.
Churchmouse – I couldn’t respond to your comment about your distrust of American beef because there was no reply option. I guess we are even – because after a friend, who traveled to UK, died of Jacob-Creutzfeldt Disease, I would not trust British beef.
I am very sorry to learn of your late friend.
All is much better on the British beef front, but I understand.
I’ve always wanted to go to England and Ireland, but the new Islamization of all of Europe has ended that desire, and my age and daughter’s disability make that impossible now.
I understand.
Oops – it’s Creutzfeldt-Jacob Disease – CJD – I always get it backwards.
That’s okay. I didn’t even notice.
President Trump Live Now
Both Steve and Rex have good points to ponder. Dr. Fauci said at the press conference testerday (3/13/20) that they cannot come up with firm numbers or a firm timeline, because they aren’t able to calculate the level of interference.
Wonder how many will blame Trump for disrupting trade with China…But H3LL who wants drugs from China right now.
Over 80% of drugs come from outside of US, with majority of them coming from China.
Would make a bet if someone being testing for Coronavirus was told the test kit was from China, they would refuse and running out the door as fast as they could.
China hints at denying Americans life-saving coronavirus drugs
https://www.foxnews.com/world/chinese-deny-americans-coronavirus-drugs
American companies and India’s companies will step up – and China can shove their products up their….
GA/FL…I love your level headed attitude towards this…dare I say…over-blown tragedy. I think we are on the same wave here. Yes, Wuhan is a problem…but please leave other people toilet paper to buy.
The run on TP and bottle water happens every hurricane season in FL. If the power goes out, we will hit the Publix and 7/11 for ice – dry ice always gets sold out quickly.
Right now is pollen season – coat of yellow pollen on every outdoor surface – lots of URIs and that always creates a run on Flonase and Zyrtec.
Next up – hot weather and sunscreen and bug repellent will be the big sellers.
Here in Germany, the toilet paper, flour, and bread……..but also, Corona beer is sold out.
People can’t say that Germans don’t have a sense of humor.
One person kept trying to buy popcorn and it was sold out!!!!
Pretty soon it’ll be on sale at LIDL… butter-flavored is the best (and the least salt)…
HOW IN THE WORLD CAN PEOPLE BUY POPCORN WITH POWDERED SUGAR ON IT?????
(only Germans could ruin perfectly good popcorn like that… and I don’t even want to get into the fact that they term paprika-powdered potato chips as “höllisch scharf”.
Hot as hell? Erm, no.
Try some Carolina Reaper powder on those chips… then we can talk about “scharf” 😀
LOL.
Well, compare brats to Italian sausage. The bias towards mild is systematic among the Teutons.
I figure with all the TP hysteria, TP factories will come on line to fill the sudden surge in demand.
Then TP will never be sold again in the next three years, as people realize they’re sitting on lifetime supplies.
LOL
Yep. It’s like the English. Bland food. But they have Indian food there that’ll burn the roof off of your mouth in no time flat.
I’m a chilihead, so I try to order the hottest on the menu. I ordered a Vindaloo, and they kept coming back asking if it was OK, etc. (they were waiting for me to pass out, or some such)… Then I went on a biz trip to Scotland, and had a chance to order a “Phal”, which is a British creation designed to burn its way through the digestive system of any unsuspecting victim. I asked them to make it hotter still…
My colleagues tried to eat little samples, but failed. I had it, great chicken Phal, I must say, and finished it all (with the help of some Raita to cool things down a bit). It just takes some getting used to. I grew up with Mexican kids who could eat Jalapenos almost like candy, and had a colleague who drank those little Tabasco favors (4 ml?) like they were candy… All a matter of environment, I guess…
The Pfal guy…
(never, EVER, try to wash down curry, or hot pepper foods, with anything carbonated, like soda pop or beer… even water won’t help. Anything with fat in it, yogurt, Lassie (not the dog), Raita, probably even Tzatziki, will work, though. Even plain milk.)…
I grew up with Mexican kids who could eat Jalapenos almost like candy, and had a colleague who drank those little Tabasco favors (4 ml?) like they were candy… —- LOL its true. Like people who eat lemons like candy as well.
I can’t do hot sadly.
[…] Posted By: SteveInCO 1 Views 0 Comment KAG, MEGA, MIGA 3ViewsShareTweetMail […]
yes…COVID-19 is serious and can be deadly and is no joking matter…
…but here in America…and phaps the world…we have an even bigger, more virulent threat !….
….the humanoidal pathogens ! ….
…so stock up now ! toilet paper is going fast ! and it’s getting DEEP out there !
😀
I have a shopping habit that I have had for over a decade or so.
I buy 2 big packs of TP and store in garage, when I take last pack from garage i buy 2 more.
Same with water, I buy 2-24 bottle cases and store in garage, when i take last one from garage I buy two more. Most of time I refill the bottle a couple of times before recycling.
Both ran out about two weeks ago, so on my shopping list. When I went to town the store had plenty of both, but a 5 pack limit on TP.
Got my two packs of each, and some other items. However, I just felt like everyone was looking at me like I was one of those.
lol…I’m chuckling…
It was weird & I’m apologizing the cashiers.
We do the same thing (as recently as last week), although we don’t apologise. 😉
Well if you on the west coast you might have all your shopping limited next
I’ll let you know when it happens in the UK. 🙂
It probably should. Many shelves are empty because of panic buying. I’ve lived here for decades and have NEVER seen empty shelves before now. I’m fed up with the greed of it all. People who actually need those items can’t find them.
BUT …
***Never apologise to shop employees. You’re paying their damn salaries.***
🙂
Oh I know but i just felt so weird that day
It’s unsettling, for sure — and, as PRex says, rather illogical.
Would that we worried about flu season as much every year. Everyone says, ‘Oh, but we have a vaccine for that.’ Uhh, only as far as last year’s flu goes — not this year’s.
Well sad to say, but while everyone is screaming about Coronavirus, a few hundred people in America are dying from the flu every week.
Yes, indeed. But we’re talking about coronavirus now, not flu, which no one cares about — suddenly and strangely.
I’m not getting at you (I have enjoyed reading your comments elsewhere from 2008), but, once we go down this route, there’s no stopping it.
About ten years ago, there was a move from Labour or the Conservatives here to get SHOP EMPLOYEES to ‘nudge’ customers away from alcohol and cigarettes. I am happy to say it did not work!
That is what I’m getting at.
That last meme has me in tears!!!🤣😂🤣
Whatever the rate of infection it is made worse by actions like this:
https://www.usnews.com/news/education-news/articles/2020-03-14/bill-de-blasio-new-york-city-schools-to-stay-open-for-now
Kids can have this and show few symptoms but still infect others.
They can generally be relied on to pick their noses, are unreliable in remembering to wash after wiping their behinds, and likely sneeze and cough without covering their mouths. They touch everything. I mean, I love them, but denying this stuff is denying reality.
If I were a New Yorker, I think I would try to put pressure on the authorities to shut things down for a couple of weeks for everyone’s sake.
Indeed.
Or you have disney pushing there BS
Disney Plus to Stream ‘Frozen 2’ Three Months Early Amid Coronavirus
https://www.breitbart.com/entertainment/2020/03/14/disney-plus-to-stream-frozen-2-three-months-early-amid-coronavirus/
Yeah no thanks. Top comments are: I’m skipping it again and let your kids go outside instead.
Right, then, who will take care of them during the day?
Grandpa and Grandma — THE MOST VULNERABLE.
And, are the kiddos going to stay at home? No, of course not (who would?). They’ll be out and about with friends. Maybe they’ll go out to a local cafe, a local ice cream place. Perhaps they’ll go to an amusement park some miles away.
Let’s think these things through — especially governments.
Sorry, but closing schools is stupid. Yes, it is being proposed in the UK, too. Effing stupid!
Enjoy–Do believe we all need a piece like this
Coronavirus Pandemic, day 16.
If anyone is still out there, I’m alive but struggling. Food is running low. Down to only 459 days worth. My hands are sanitized and my butt is super clean. Power still on, but for how long? Missing human interaction. I fear dark days ahead. News is all bad. Last few friends have leapt from buildings to their death, (or near death… most have single story homes so they are badly bruised). Basic necessities are gone though. NBA, NHL, NASCAR, NCAA, PGA, all gone. Basic Survival is a definite challenge. I vow to persevere to the end, I am a survivor! Please, if there is life out there, communicate!
Hahahahaha! Thanks for the much needed laugh!
We need witty people like you.
not from a friend ….thought it was worth the share ..
YOu forgot to mention only ten years worth of TP left.
Hey!!!! Elizabeth Warren should be put in charge of TeePee.
LOL LOL
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO………………………I am a TP hoarder! She’ll redistribute my TP!!!!! NO NO NO
Hilarious, kin!!!!!!!
got from a friend -===do need a break
QUOTE:
“The rule of thumb is ….“ -SteveInCo
Wait….rule of thumb?
Yep.
It shoulda been the rule of wrist.
😎👍
Scott!!!!! LOL!
“In a pressure cooker of a flu spreading machine called a cruise ship” where 4,000 people share very close quarters and contact surfaces and air circulation…17% Wuhan virus fatality rate…not 80% or 50%.
Dan Bongino hosts an excellent interview with Dr. Centeno—Coronavirus Facts vs. Fiction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkOdpYvK6OQ
Sheryl Crow tried to warn us to only use one sheet of toilet paper per visit….but we did not want to listen. Now we pay the consequences.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2007/apr/23/musicnews.music
“Sheryl Crow tried to warn us to only use one sheet of toilet paper per visit….but we did not want to listen. Now we pay the consequences.”
_______________
Moral of the story: Always trust Sheryl Crow.
She knows things.
Sheryl’s current advice during these trying times?
Run baby, run! 😁
Anybody got a fig leaf???😲
Well……….there is this thing called “family cloths.” Google it. I’ve learned all about them in the last couple days.
Hoofhearted offered to send me maple leaves from Canada……..
OMG…………Scott!!!!!!!
so funny!
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH IN NC
This is for North Carolina articles from:
*https://www.newsobserver.com/
March 4 – 1 in Raleigh Wake County.
March 6 – 2 — second case Chatham County.
March 10 – 7 cases five new patients attended a Biogen conference in Boston.
March 13 – 16 CASES REPORTED all over state.
Updated:
March 13 – 24 known cases of in North Carolina counties
NOTE BIOGEN CONFERENCE IN BOSTON late Feb
timeline from the county:
• Feb. 29: One patient cast a ballot at Millbrook Exchange Community Center, a voting site in Raleigh.
• March 2 to 5: Multiple people with symptoms worked at Biogen offices in Research Triangle Park.
• March 2 to 6: Several of the Biogen employees traveled through Raleigh-Durham International Airport.
• March 4: One patient dined at Zest Café & Home Art, a restaurant on Six Forks Road in Raleigh.
This was updated yesterday to:
Here are the known cases in North Carolina so far and the dates on which they were announced:
• #1: March 3: A patient from Wake County who traveled to Kirkland, Wash., and was likely exposed to the virus during a visit to a long-term care facility there, the site of an outbreak.
• #2: March 6: A Chatham County patient who traveled to Italy, where there was a COVID-19 outbreak,
• #3, #4, #5, #6, #7, March 9: Five employees at Biogen’s Research Triangle Park facility. Company employees attended a conference in Boston in late February, where an outbreak occurred.
• #8: March 11: Another Biogen employee who attended the Boston conference.
• #9: March 11: A Durham patient who tested positive in another state and stayed there to recuperate.
• #10: March 12: A Wake County patient who had contact with the Biogen visitor from Indiana.
• #11: March 12: A person tested positive for the virus in Mecklenburg County.
• #12: March 12: A Cabarrus County patient tested positive after international travel.
• #13, #14: March 12: A Forsyth County couple tested positive after traveling on a cruise where an outbreak was reported.
• #15: March 12: A Johnston County resident tested positive after traveling and falling ill.
• #16: March 12: A dependent of a Marine living on base at Camp Lejeune, outside Jacksonville, tested positive after having contact with a person outside the area who had COVID-19.
• #17: March 13: A Wayne County resident tested positive for the virus.
• #18: March 13: Wake County announces another case from the Biogen cluster.
• #19: March 13: A Harnett County resident tests positive at an outpatient facility, Cape Fear Valley Health reports.
• #20: March 14: A Brunswick County resident tests positive, county officials said.
• #21: March 14: A Craven County resident who traveled overseas tested positive. He is isolated at home, local health officials say.
• Details about cases #22 and #23 are not yet known. They are believed to be Wake County cases
announced by the DHHS on March 14. Wake County on the same day announced that a teacher at Fuquay-Varina Elementary School tested positive.
• #24: March 14: A Mecklenburg County resident who traveled to the United Kingdom tested positive, health officials say.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Well that kills our business dead for a few months.
The biogen conference is also connected so one of the TN outbreak clusters – the original Williamson County man had traveled to Boston and was either exposed at the Biogen conference or exposed to people who attended the Biogen conference.
https://www.wbur.org/commonhealth/2020/03/05/tennessee-coronavirus-boston
Guess what — a Chinese business man has offered 500,000 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S. That is a nice gesture but how many people will just run the other direction if they are told it is from China.
Chinese businessman to donate 500,000 test kits and 1 million masks to the U.S.
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/13/jack-ma-coronavirus-test-kits-128522?fbclid=IwAR1vBw16lpQE-twUdOcSH3N7WJAtQXVZVhuo18X3AZcejEHOt0F-Xp6LZgI
Thanks but NO THANKS!
How do you test them for the virus?
Do you autoclave?
Use UV light?
Chlorine gas…
This is what I told a friend–Most will run the other way
Some of them are in too tight with the ChicCom party and I’d want to test with aqua regia.
Just say ‘no’. That’s the AliBaba guy. He’s in it for the $$$.
Not sure what he is in it for, but most are scared to buy anything made in China right now.
Good!
More on the coronvirus….from an expert on China
Viruses do not do well in warm weather… praying for an early spring…Kudos also to PDJT…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jmkk_Do-CxA
Scrolling on down to give Steve a PIE…On Pi day!!! seems appropriate!!! Great Post darlin!!!
I did eat a mini pizza in honor of the occasion.
HA! Wait.. can I bring pizza girl in da bathtub here?!!! 😂😂😂
I think so?
Anyhow, how are things?
We all good darlin!! Thank the good Lord I got TP!! LOL!! and back up …PUFFS ! LOL!!!
Over on the daily I gave a “field report,” speaking of TP
No Idea… how that post would come out!! Now..I am dying laughing!!!😂😂😂😂
Just corrected a very wrong sentence in my post; it formerly read that 4 to the 4th power is 1 (it’s not, it’s 256). I meant it to read that 4 to the first power is 4.
May the 4th be with you 🙂
I’m math-challenged and never would have picked that up. 🙂
I was worried that someone might have thought they were following along, then hit that sentence…and thought I’d leapt beyond their understanding, rather than realizing it was just wrong as written.
You were right to correct it for that reason, but several of us, being mathphobic (for lack of a better expression), would not even have noticed. 🙂
Updated from Wed night:
2/26 – 15
2/28 – 19
2/29 – 24 (+5)
3/1 – 42 (+18)
3/2 – 57 (+15)
3/3 – 85 (+28)
3/4 – 111 (+26)
3/5 – 175 (+64)
3/6 – 252 (+77)
3/7 – 352 (+100)
3/8 – 495 (+143)
3/9 – 643 (+148)
3/10 – 932 (+289)
3/11 – 1,203 (+271)
3/12 – 1,598 (+395)
3/13 – 2,160 (+562)
3/14 – 2,820 (+660)
3/15 – 3,714 – as if now but it will be updated again before midnight (+)
At the time I did the numbers up through 3/11 I wrote:
“I am actually expecting the numbers to take a jump as we have more testing and then cont. at a particular pace but below is going on the approx. pattern I see above…doubling about 3 days.
12 days – 15 known cases to 1,200 known cases and expecting about 400+ cases to be reported by tomorrow.
So, by 3/14, in 2 short weeks we will be 24 – 2K?! Is that right?!
3/14 – 4K
3/16 – 8K
3/18 – 16K
3/20 – 32K
3/22 – 64K
3/24 – 128K
3/26 – 256K
3/28 – 500K
3/30 – 1 million”
The good news: new diagnosed cases grew slower on 3/12 – 15. We will be at 4K by the end of today/early Monday morning instead of Saturday. This slower growth rate delays the crisis # of cases. Good.
VERY GLAD to be wrong – Delighted the growth rate slowed over the last several days as this buys us a few weeks before we reach full capacity in our hospitals + gains time to decrease capacity (canceling all elective surgeries and moving people from hospital to nursing homes faster as allowed in the changes made on Friday). The slower it growths the more prep by our medical system can be done.
Personal opinion: I think we will may see a spike as reports on Monday of cases not reported over the weekend that are then included in Monday’s totals from hospitals, counties and states.
Common opinion: We will also see a spike as drive through testing becomes available but after the first initial spike as we have more cases represented it will again be the growth rate of cases with complications v. total numbers. All about not overwhelming the medical system as well as our workforce in general so stores, medical workers, water/electrical and internet systems all stay functional, supply chains and emergency services can stay operational.
Hopeful opinion: Then we should see a drop in growth rate as the affects of all of the shut downs and quarantines/social distancing impact slowed growth. Also a drop as new cases from abroad stop due to travel restrictions and the clusters of people to whom they pass it are prevented.
Fingers cross that enough is being down quickly enough to slow the growth + increase our capacity and preparedness.
What I’d like to see is “tested positive” kept in one set of data and “bad enough to be in the hospital” kept in another.
The testing number will show an artificially large increase, because we’re testing more and more people who weren’t “prime” candidates before.
But the hospitalization rate ought to be pretty a pretty accurate trendline, back for a month or two at least–after all when someone is hospitalized, he’s now “visible” to the epidemiologists; there’s no “invisible” hospitalized population here. As Prognosticasaurus has pointed out, people before that were probably, even certainly, misdiagnosed when they went to the hospital.
Yes, you are exactly right. I wish we knew cases, hospitalizations, deaths, recovered. Its the hospitalizations that are key. Overall cases are important when we have a percentage of how many are serious and can extrapolate but that will change when the testing is expanded to include more of the mild cases.
Either way, glad for the slow down…even though I think we will see a spike on monday as more are reported. Plus, we see the work of some super spreaders. Chattanooga TN reports another clergy who has been around hundreds and hundreds between his exposure and diagnosis. ugh!
I think the key thing is for people to talk it seriously and to understand why we are seeing drastic gov actions. constantly taking about how many cases as of “today” is missing the point and is unhelpful esp. as we ought to be pulling together as a country to stop this before disaster.
Its like needing to stop a speeding training. Got to apply the breaks Hard!
this web site has a count but I am not sure how they are tracking the mild/serious cases.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
[…] exchanged comments on an excellent coronavirus thread, ‘Of Exponents and Viruses’ at the Q […]